Florence the freight train hurricane

[Days]

The latest forecast model in most favor, calls for this hurricane to stall right at the coast, turn south by southwest and meander down the coastline, just offshore, that weakens it from cat 4 to cat 3 and then cat 2 as it turns west and plows into South Carolina.

If the hurricane really does that, South Carolina is going under water.

 

[Days]

The latest forecast model in most favor, calls for this hurricane to stall right at the coast, turn south by southwest and meander down the coastline, just offshore, that weakens it from cat 4 to cat 3 and then cat 2 as it turns west and plows into South Carolina.

If the hurricane really does that, South Carolina is going under water.

If the hurricane does follow the latest forecasted track, North Carolina will get a massive storm surge and it continues for them also... as long as the eye is offshore. The feedwinds are north of the eye so North Carolina gets more rain per hour than Houston began to get from Harvey. The european model that successfully predicted five feet of rain for Houston is predicting five feet of rain for North Carolina from Florence... that falls on top of the storm surge. Remember, they were predicting 9 feet of water from the storm surge directly in front of the eye, but that was going to end as the hurricane moved inland. Now, the storm surge will almost be the same, a little less, but the storm surge will become a non-stop event, as long as the eye is over water, the storm surge keeps pushing water onto land.

Our local coverage in Chicago calls for "extensive flooding inland" ... extensive, as in, Noah's flood was extensive flooding inland. No, but, seriously, how many feet of water are we talking about? This hurricane raced across the Atlantic like a freight train but it is already hitting the brakes, it has slowed to 15 mph by now and it is coming to a stop, then changing directions, so it will start up real slow to the south. The swell isn't determined by the speed of the hurricane, the swell is determined by the strength of the hurricane. So, it will still be a major hurricane and the swell is right up against the coast... how much water do you get from that as it meanders from central North Carolina all the way down to central South Carolina? Depends on how long that takes... 30 hours? 36 hours? 48 hours?

Going to take a wild guess at it. Let's target directly in front of the hurricane where it comes to a stop, central North Carolina. Let's make our guess in feet of water pushed into and rained onto the coast. So for the entire event...

surge: really, I can't imagine, any where from 12 feet to 20 feet?
rain: 5-7 feet.

 

[Days]

this is feed from the satellite, this is the water vapor loop for the Atlantic...

Gives you an idea how much water this hurricane packs. If that monster stalls just off the coast, it pumps water from the ocean onto land like you can't imagine.

The whole state of South Carolina should go under water.... ten feet at the coast and that's still 3-5 feet 50 miles inland.

 

[John Doe]

The aftermath of Charley here in Arcadia in 2004 (I was a 100 miles north in Tampa in those days)
Irma hit us last September 10th and I thought that was bad enough. Anyhow, this is what a category 4 direct hit looks like.

 

[Days]

Looking down into this hurricane, it is solid top to bottom...

this is upper level water vapor

this is mid-level water vapor

this is lower level water vapor

They are saying this will be the storm of a lifetime, but I'm afraid anyone living along the coast who thinks they can ride this out will not live to learn how bad this storm truly was.

There's a big difference between a regular ocean wave that breaks onto the beach and a hurricane storm surge. The storm surge is being pushed inland. Normally, that water just drains right back into the ocean. But when a hurricane stalls just off the coast and keeps pushing a storm surge; it pushes a constant surge, water is being pumped in constantly and that forces the water ahead of it further inland.

People who ride this out are thinking the hurricane will pass through; that's the whole idea behind "ride it out" ... but this hurricane is slowing down as it comes in, so the rain event is stretching out in time even before the storm surge arrives. I can't imagine anyone who lives on Emerald Island that decides to ride out this hurricane... I can't imagine them surviving. Imagine 12 feet of water being pumped over the island in rapids... for 10-20 hours straight. No way anyone survives that.

 

[Days]

The aftermath of Charley here in Arcadia in 2004 (I was a 100 miles north in Tampa in those days)
Irma hit us last September 10th and I thought that was bad enough. Anyhow, this is what a category 4 direct hit looks like.

that's the wind damage inland... Florence is going to be all about flooding.

 

[John Doe]

that's the wind damage inland... Florence is going to be all about flooding.

It will be a doozy, Charley came off the gulf and followed the peace river about 40 miles the hit here. It was a fast mover.

Yes, flooding will be severe. This probably will be the most expensive storm in US history.

Irma dump a ft of rain and near flooded my house. (though the ground was saturated already.

Hurricane Charley - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Charley

• Overview
• Contents
• Meteorological history
• Preparations
• Impact
• Aftermath

• Hurricane Charley was the first of four individual hurricanes to impact or strike Florida during 2004, along with Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, as well as one of the strongest hurricanes ever to strike the United States. It was the third named storm, the second hurricane, and the second major hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season. Charley lasted from August 9 to August 15, and at its peak intensity it attained 150 mph winds, …

See more on en.wikipedia.org · Text under CC-BY-SA license

 

[Days]

It will be a doozy, Charley came off the gulf and followed the peace river about 40 miles the hit here. It was a fast mover.

Yes, flooding will be severe. This probably will be the most expensive storm in US history.

Irma dump a ft of rain and near flooded my house. (though the ground was saturated already.

Hurricane Charley - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Charley

• Overview
• Contents
• Meteorological history
• Preparations
• Impact
• Aftermath

• Hurricane Charley was the first of four individual hurricanes to impact or strike Florida during 2004, along with Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, as well as one of the strongest hurricanes ever to strike the United States. It was the third named storm, the second hurricane, and the second major hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season. Charley lasted from August 9 to August 15, and at its peak intensity it attained 150 mph winds, …

See more on en.wikipedia.org · Text under CC-BY-SA license

Remember Harvey stalling and dumping five feet of rain on Houston?
I think this is going to be worse.
Coastal areas could see 2-3 times as much water as Harvey dumped up and down Texas coast. There is going to be a storm surge event with Florence that we have never seen the likes of, this hurricane should teach us how bad a hurricane can be.

Storm surge is directly related to the strength of the eye. When the eye stays in the water and the feed winds into the eye are all over water; there's no guarantee that eye is going to weaken. Yes the bands that are over land get dried up, but they refill with water before they come around to the eye again. So yes the overall hurricane weakens, but the eye is very stubborn when it gets a healthy feed. The storm surge is the swell being pushed from the eye... this hurricane is supposed to stall just off the coast, and the eye is supposed to stay over water; this should be our first taste of a sustained storm surge... we don't really know what will happen.

the world is watching...

 

[Days]

By the way... Emerald Island stretches 25 miles along and just off the North Carolina coast. The hurricane is supposed to go straight at it and stall over top of it or in front of it... either way, the entire island is going under at least ten feet of water.

 

[Days]

Florence has been downgraded to a category 3 hurricane. that's good news. sustained winds have decreased from 130 mph to 120 mph... I don't know if there's a wind shear or why it is happening. Maybe Pat Robertson got the memo and is praying smarter?

 

[Days]

Wow, sustained winds are down to 115 mph. Yesterday the forecast for the hurricane said it was supposed to strengthen as it closed in on the coast... it was supposed to get up to 150 mph sustained winds. I think the waters off the North Carolina coast were a lot warmer than the waters out in the Atlantic, someone messed up, this is what normally happens when hurricanes are this far north in the Atlantic, the waters are colder and the hurricanes weaken.

 

[Days]

Now its a category 2 hurricane, 110 mph sustained winds. But if it follows the track in the forecasted model, it is still going to be a major flooding event. The good news is that all those people riding this hurricane out, just might live.

The bad news is there's a ledge running out into the Atlantic, it is fairly steep but still, where this hurricane is headed, the waters get warmer, now they also get more shallow. Plus the hurricane is forecasted to turn south, so that's also warmer waters. If Florence is right off the shoreline, 40% of the hurricane bands are over land, which means a lot of rain, but it also should make it weaken, but if the eye is over warm water and there's pretty warm water behind the eye, feeding the eye, the hurricane may very well retain its intensity; and that makes for a smallish storm surge, but it is non-stop for as long as the eye is running down the coast. I still think we will get more flooding from Florence than we got from Harvey; it depends on how long Florence lingers offshore.

 

[Days]

Okay, yeah, Florence was in colder water, that's why she lost intensity. She is still at 105 mph sustained winds, category 2.

the eye should be entering the Gulfstream, so there could be some strengthening, actually there has been some strengthening, she is back down to 955 mb, wind speed might pick up a little, at this point, she looks to be a powerful cat 2 hurricane.

The rain event is still going to be tremendous. All the rivers in the Carolinas are going to flood and probably flashflood. The stormsurge shouldn't be apocalyptic, but it might still be record setting; the eye has to slowly drag along the coast just offshore to get that; we'll see what happens.

 

[Days]

Okay, yeah, Florence was in colder water, that's why she lost intensity. She is still at 105 mph sustained winds, category 2.

the eye should be entering the Gulfstream, so there could be some strengthening, actually there has been some strengthening, she is back down to 955 mb, wind speed might pick up a little, at this point, she looks to be a powerful cat 2 hurricane.

The rain event is still going to be tremendous. All the rivers in the Carolinas are going to flood and probably flashflood. The stormsurge shouldn't be apocalyptic, but it might still be record setting; the eye has to slowly drag along the coast just offshore to get that; we'll see what happens.

Florence movement has slowed to 10 mph. And she is forecast to come to a stall, so there is a dynamic at play here, that hasn't received any attention. Right now she is entering the Gulfstream, and those are much warmer waters, at the same time she is slowing big time, now look at where she is, her entire inner band (that feeds the eye) is still over water and at the moment, the feed is off to the west... feeding on warmer waters. See that curl of dark green? As she continues to slow movement, this will have time to strengthen the hurricane. This hurricane might intensify more than they think.

 

[Days]

Florence movement has slowed to 10 mph. And she is forecast to come to a stall, so there is a dynamic at play here, that hasn't received any attention. Right now she is entering the Gulfstream, and those are much warmer waters, at the same time she is slowing big time, now look at where she is, her entire inner band (that feeds the eye) is still over water and at the moment, the feed is off to the west... feeding on warmer waters. See that curl of dark green? As she continues to slow movement, this will have time to strengthen the hurricane. This hurricane might intensify more than they think.

4 1/2 hours later and Florence has dropped another 5 mph in sustained wind speed... so, go figure. Pat Robertson prayer group? About the only thing that was weakening this hurricane, far as I can tell. (that and 1/3 of it is over land)

So, yeah, it enters the gulfstream and drops to 100 mph max sustained winds (in the eye)

Still going to be very interesting to watch what this hurricane does and it still should drop an awful lot of rain. They have forecast 40 inches of rain for this hurricane, but that is the rain that accompanies the latest forecast for the hurricane path, which now they say it slows to human walking speed (2-3 mph) and meanders down the coastline, just offshore, but turns inland at the North Carolina/South Carolina border... so that's a day less in the water than the earlier path that went all the way to Charleston in the water.

The way the forecasted path has changed daily and the way the strength has done the opposite of what they forecasted... ya gotta sit and watch this hurricane to see what it really does.

latest snapshot:

 

[Days]

4 1/2 hours later and Florence has dropped another 5 mph in sustained wind speed... so, go figure. Pat Robertson prayer group? About the only thing that was weakening this hurricane, far as I can tell. (that and 1/3 of it is over land)

So, yeah, it enters the gulfstream and drops to 100 mph max sustained winds (in the eye)

Still going to be very interesting to watch what this hurricane does and it still should drop an awful lot of rain. They have forecast 40 inches of rain for this hurricane, but that is the rain that accompanies the latest forecast for the hurricane path, which now they say it slows to human walking speed (2-3 mph) and meanders down the coastline, just offshore, but turns inland at the North Carolina/South Carolina border... so that's a day less in the water than the earlier path that went all the way to Charleston in the water.

The way the forecasted path has changed daily and the way the strength has done the opposite of what they forecasted... ya gotta sit and watch this hurricane to see what it really does.

latest snapshot:

and wow, the movement is now at 5 mph.

 

[John Doe]

4 1/2 hours later and Florence has dropped another 5 mph in sustained wind speed... so, go figure. Pat Robertson prayer group? About the only thing that was weakening this hurricane, far as I can tell. (that and 1/3 of it is over land)

So, yeah, it enters the gulfstream and drops to 100 mph max sustained winds (in the eye)

Still going to be very interesting to watch what this hurricane does and it still should drop an awful lot of rain. They have forecast 40 inches of rain for this hurricane, but that is the rain that accompanies the latest forecast for the hurricane path, which now they say it slows to human walking speed (2-3 mph) and meanders down the coastline, just offshore, but turns inland at the North Carolina/South Carolina border... so that's a day less in the water than the earlier path that went all the way to Charleston in the water.

The way the forecasted path has changed daily and the way the strength has done the opposite of what they forecasted... ya gotta sit and watch this hurricane to see what it really does.

latest snapshot:

Same with all of them, they defy prediction.

 

[Days]

Same with all of them, they defy prediction.

Did you know... the word "Hurricane" is an English transliteration for the Jamaican god who brought the storms?

the gods always defy prediction...

 

[Days]

latest snap shot...
all of Virginia, North & South Carolina, and Georgia are getting heavy rain...

 

[Days]

Still category 2, still 100 mph sustained winds, still moving at 5 mph...

Look at how much rain is falling and this hurricane is a long way from where it is supposed to go. Look at where the eye is... how long would it take to walk from there to the North Carolina coast and then down the coast to the South Carolina border? Would if it kept going to Charleston? the Georgia border? We could be watching this hurricane for another week, we don't know exactly where it is headed. Look at all that rain and it isn't going to lighten up one bit, as long as the eye is in the water, the rain will be falling. Although the hurricane dropped in intensity, it remains an enormous and well developed storm, perfect eye, perfect rotation...

Now, North Carolina is getting that inner band of the hurricane, the really heavy rain.