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I'm guesstimating here

Bernard_Fokke

Captain Fokke
Supporting Member
That the US death count will top 100 K by the 26th or 27th, been tracking the world/US for a while and our 11 day running average is around 1100 per day.

I know , kinda morbid but I'm watching to see if there's a decline, there is a downward trend in the US confirmed cases but not the world confirmed. The world/US death toll is headed up but honestly I don't entirely trust the overall accuracy of the Johns Hopkins numbers.

Not that they are doing a bad job mind you, I just figure that there's a pretty large GIGO/SISO factor given the sources reporting in on the pandemic stats.
 

RickWA

Senator
That the US death count will top 100 K by the 26th or 27th, been tracking the world/US for a while and our 11 day running average is around 1100 per day.

I know , kinda morbid but I'm watching to see if there's a decline, there is a downward trend in the US confirmed cases but not the world confirmed. The world/US death toll is headed up but honestly I don't entirely trust the overall accuracy of the Johns Hopkins numbers.

Not that they are doing a bad job mind you, I just figure that there's a pretty large GIGO/SISO factor given the sources reporting in on the pandemic stats.
Just be sure to watch for the lefty celebratory top posts deliriously...JOYOUSLY commemorating this sad milestone with heretofore unseen delight.

When one has no moral compass and no transcendent value system, the wellspring of filth runneth over. Watch the husks - and be glad you were raised better.
 

Bernard_Fokke

Captain Fokke
Supporting Member
Just be sure to watch for the lefty celebratory top posts deliriously...JOYOUSLY commemorating this sad milestone with heretofore unseen delight.

When one has no moral compass and no transcendent value system, the wellspring of filth runneth over. Watch the husks - and be glad you were raised better.
Well hopefully I've pissed enough of the nasty libs here to put me on ignore ;)
so I won't have to read their disingenuous BS comments win/win.
 

Raoul_Luke

I feel a bit lightheaded. Maybe you should drive.
Two observations:

1. The US is doing rather well in comparison to the rest of the developed world


2. The lockdowns were counterproductive

Screenshot 2020-05-23 at 6.43.19 AM.png

Anything anyone says that contradicts those two basic facts is propaganda.
 

Bernard_Fokke

Captain Fokke
Supporting Member
Two observations:

1. The US is doing rather well in comparison to the rest of the developed world


2. The lockdowns were counterproductive

View attachment 52151

Anything anyone says that contradicts those two basic facts is propaganda.
Agreed, we were not locked down here in Missouri.

The governor closed a lot of places and although the infection rate is low the unemployment is high as a lot of folks are out of work.

Crime rate is up too, petty theft is rampant and burglaries are way up., I sure hope they leave us alone as I really do not want to pop a cap on some idiot intent on breaking into our home. It's a real messy clean up, plus holes in the walls that need patched and blood to get out of the carpet is a bear.

However being 71 and wife at 69 we decided to just not go out as much except for food runs or drive through take out we didn't go anywhere we always masked up when we did go we stayed clear of people. So far so good, at worst it's annoying but nothing one can't live with.
 

Dawg

President
Supporting Member
That the US death count will top 100 K by the 26th or 27th, been tracking the world/US for a while and our 11 day running average is around 1100 per day.

I know , kinda morbid but I'm watching to see if there's a decline, there is a downward trend in the US confirmed cases but not the world confirmed. The world/US death toll is headed up but honestly I don't entirely trust the overall accuracy of the Johns Hopkins numbers.

Not that they are doing a bad job mind you, I just figure that there's a pretty large GIGO/SISO factor given the sources reporting in on the pandemic stats.
Had someone I know just die with a massive heart attack while shopping and death certificate says Covid_19 cause...………..the numbers are cooked like CRA books were
 
Last edited:

EatTheRich

President
Two observations:

1. The US is doing rather well in comparison to the rest of the developed world


2. The lockdowns were counterproductive

View attachment 52151

Anything anyone says that contradicts those two basic facts is propaganda.
That infection rates that had been skyrocketing before the lockdowns continued to decline after they ended suggests, on the contrary, that they were very effective.
 

Raoul_Luke

I feel a bit lightheaded. Maybe you should drive.
That infection rates that had been skyrocketing before the lockdowns continued to decline after they ended suggests, on the contrary, that they were very effective.
On the contrary. If that were the case a) the infection rate would have declined as soon as they went into effect, and b) SOME elevation of the rate of infections would be seen at least some places at least temporarily, when they were first lifted. What it actually suggests is that infections are just following their inherent trajectory regardless of what we did or didn't do.
 

Bernard_Fokke

Captain Fokke
Supporting Member
That the US death count will top 100 K by the 26th or 27th, been tracking the world/US for a while and our 11 day running average is around 1100 per day.

I know , kinda morbid but I'm watching to see if there's a decline, there is a downward trend in the US confirmed cases but not the world confirmed. The world/US death toll is headed up but honestly I don't entirely trust the overall accuracy of the Johns Hopkins numbers.

Not that they are doing a bad job mind you, I just figure that there's a pretty large GIGO/SISO factor given the sources reporting in on the pandemic stats.
wrld wrld US US dly
dly avg dead dead avg
5/10 2531 281287 79180 487
5/11 2239 283526 79606 426
5/12 3309 286835 80684 1078
5/13 5541 292376 82389 1705
5/14 9021 301397 85813 3424
5/15 5015 306412 87204 1391
5/16 5013 311425 88745 1541
5/17 3598 315023 89550 805
5/18 473 315496 89564 14?
5/19 3651 319147 90373 809
5/20 8948 328095 93491 3118
5/21 4150 332245 94661 1170
5/22 5327 337572 95921 1260
5/23 5544 343116 97211 1290
This is what it looks like @1220 CST
 

middleview

President
Supporting Member
Had someone I know just die with a massive heart attack while shopping and death certificate says Covid_19 cause...………..the numbers are cooked like CRA books were
My uncle was in ICU for two weeks with Covid. They decided they could remove the vent and move him to another floor. He died the next morning. They said a heart attack was likely, but Covid caused it. Did you even have a clue as to the impact on your organs from Covid?
 

voyager

4Q2247365
At this point what is fifty thousand dead more or less. Besides this thing is only getting started. "No more shut downs no matter what."
 

Dawg

President
Supporting Member
My uncle was in ICU for two weeks with Covid. They decided they could remove the vent and move him to another floor. He died the next morning. They said a heart attack was likely, but Covid caused it. Did you even have a clue as to the impact on your organs from Covid?
Massive Heart Attack
 

EatTheRich

President
On the contrary. If that were the case a) the infection rate would have declined as soon as they went into effect, and b) SOME elevation of the rate of infections would be seen at least some places at least temporarily, when they were first lifted. What it actually suggests is that infections are just following their inherent trajectory regardless of what we did or didn't do.
1) Confirmed cases lag actual infections by 2-3 weeks, as you know.
2) If the reservoir of infected persons is sufficiently reduced there is no reason to expect infections to go up after, on the basis of success in stemming the spread, restrictions are lifted.
 

Raoul_Luke

I feel a bit lightheaded. Maybe you should drive.
1) Confirmed cases lag actual infections by 2-3 weeks, as you know.
2) If the reservoir of infected persons is sufficiently reduced there is no reason to expect infections to go up after, on the basis of success in stemming the spread, restrictions are lifted.
The simple fact is that, if there are any remaining infected as the restrictions are lifted, and if the restrictions were in any way beneficial, you would expect to see a statistically significant jump in the number of infections.
 

Nutty Cortez

Dummy (D) NY
The simple fact is that, if there are any remaining infected as the restrictions are lifted, and if the restrictions were in any way beneficial, you would expect to see a statistically significant jump in the number of infections.

A Few things:

The numbers of deaths- is very liberal. They stated that from the get go.
It will be a while before we know who really died FROM Covid. And those who died WITH Covid.

Like John Glenn's wife- she had Covid- but was 100 years old- lets be serious- the woman died of old age.

CDC and other localities keep track of average illness death rates annually. By State as well.

If a state typically has say 2000 deaths from illness annually - and at the end of this year- it's still 2000. You are going to have some pissed off people.
 

EatTheRich

President
The simple fact is that, if there are any remaining infected as the restrictions are lifted, and if the restrictions were in any way beneficial, you would expect to see a statistically significant jump in the number of infections.
Which we will, when the 2nd wave of infection hits. Remember, the first one took a long time to build, while folks like you were saying there was nothing to worry about.
 

Bernard_Fokke

Captain Fokke
Supporting Member
wrld wrld US US dly
dly avg dead dead avg
5/10 2531 281287 79180 487
5/11 2239 283526 79606 426
5/12 3309 286835 80684 1078
5/13 5541 292376 82389 1705
5/14 9021 301397 85813 3424
5/15 5015 306412 87204 1391
5/16 5013 311425 88745 1541
5/17 3598 315023 89550 805
5/18 473 315496 89564 14?
5/19 3651 319147 90373 809
5/20 8948 328095 93491 3118
5/21 4150 332245 94661 1170
5/22 5327 337572 95921 1260
5/23 5544 343116 97211 1290
This is what it looks like @1220 CST
1300 CST, Johns Hopkins


99,674 deaths
US
 
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