Arkady
President
We still have no idea whether the Vegas attack was terrorism or not. But it certainly reveals a vulnerability to terrorism. Shortly after 9/11, I had a morbid discussion with some friends about ways that even a single terrorist could kill dozens or even thousands of people with almost no expertise. It was a chilling conversation because even with that group, none of whom had military training or other special knowledge, we kept coming up with lone-wolf, high-death-toll plans that would be almost impossible to prevent.
One of the easiest plans looked very similar to what just happened in Vegas. The idea was to bring a bunch of high-rate-of-fire rifles to a high-rise building with a clear view of Times Square on New Year's Eve, and just randomly fire into the crowd. Even with no marksmanship skill, you could kill dozens before the police could hope to take you out. And the trampling would kill or maim dozens more. And it's almost impossible to do anything about it. Sure, you could identify likely venues where this could happen and force high-rise hotels nearby to screen guests for weapons. But, while I would have thought of Times Square, I may not have thought of a Vegas event; many locations would remain vulnerable. It wouldn't even need to be a special event. This is just rush hour:
That's not even the worst of the scenarios we came up with. Here's one that would let a lone nut kill thousands of people on live TV at relatively low cost and a good chance of him making it out of there alive. First, buy a surplus mortar, in the 60 mm range, along with a couple dozen anti-personnel rounds. These are dirt cheap and widely available all over the world, so the only trick would be smuggling them into the US. It may even be possible to buy them here.
Now, just set it up in a location half a mile from a stadium, and fire into the venue. With a little practice beforehand, you could work out the ranging and apply it exactly using GPS to hit within a few few dozen feet of where you were aiming. In the field, soldiers don't always have good info on their exact coordinates and those of their target and the relative altitude of each, etc., but if you planned it out in advance, you could all of those precisely, allowing even the first shot to be pretty accurate. After that, live coverage could allow you to fine tune your aim.... or you could use a web cam perched nearby with a cell phone to see just where your shots were landing so you could walk them in. Fire for a minute, then drive away before anyone knows what happened.
To picture that, here's Michigan stadium. It holds over 115,000 fans, packed tightly:
Here's what a 60 mm mortar looks like:
The whole thing weighs just 40 pounds, and each round weighs around 3 pounds, so a sturdy person could carry the weapon and two dozen rounds, without too much effort, and for a two-person team it would be easy.
That will fire between 76, and 3,816 yards effectively. If you set up 1000 yards away, well within range, to give yourself an easy shot, you could be way the hell out here, far beyond the radius of any enhanced security:
A 60-mm HE M49A4 will cover about a 33-foot blast radius lethally (other 60 mm rounds go from about half that to about twice that, so I'm taking the middle). Here's what that radius looks like superimposed on the stadium:
Roughly 1200 people would be inside that circle and would be dead, from a single hit -- with severe injuries all around it. That's 1200 dead with a single shot. Land just three shots in the stadium before it empties, and you've carried out the deadliest terrorist attack in history.... on live TV. The weapon is designed to fire 30 shots in one minute, so even throwing away the first few for ranging, it would be hard not to kill far more people than died on 9/11.
And that's with a fairly small and cheap mortar -- a plan you could pull off for $10,000 or so solo or with a two-man team. With a four-man team and about twice the funds, you could go with a 120 mm mortar, mounted to a pickup truck. The 120 mm HE shells have a lethality radius of 225 feet, so dropping one at midfield would kill about 40,000 people at a shot, and any shot landing anywhere in that stadium would kill at least 10,000. And after firing 15 shots in a minute, you could just drive away.
How do you defend against that? A 60 mm mortar has a range of up to 2.1 miles, and a 120 mm mortar has a range of up to 4.5 miles. You simply cannot police a range that far around every event. And there are hundreds of thousands of these mortars available all around the world for cheap. Even if you couldn't get your hands on one, something home-made would be easy. There are home-made devices that chuck pumpkins as far as 4700 feet -- chucking a bunch of home-made pipe bombs with one of those would be child's play.
One of the easiest plans looked very similar to what just happened in Vegas. The idea was to bring a bunch of high-rate-of-fire rifles to a high-rise building with a clear view of Times Square on New Year's Eve, and just randomly fire into the crowd. Even with no marksmanship skill, you could kill dozens before the police could hope to take you out. And the trampling would kill or maim dozens more. And it's almost impossible to do anything about it. Sure, you could identify likely venues where this could happen and force high-rise hotels nearby to screen guests for weapons. But, while I would have thought of Times Square, I may not have thought of a Vegas event; many locations would remain vulnerable. It wouldn't even need to be a special event. This is just rush hour:
That's not even the worst of the scenarios we came up with. Here's one that would let a lone nut kill thousands of people on live TV at relatively low cost and a good chance of him making it out of there alive. First, buy a surplus mortar, in the 60 mm range, along with a couple dozen anti-personnel rounds. These are dirt cheap and widely available all over the world, so the only trick would be smuggling them into the US. It may even be possible to buy them here.
Now, just set it up in a location half a mile from a stadium, and fire into the venue. With a little practice beforehand, you could work out the ranging and apply it exactly using GPS to hit within a few few dozen feet of where you were aiming. In the field, soldiers don't always have good info on their exact coordinates and those of their target and the relative altitude of each, etc., but if you planned it out in advance, you could all of those precisely, allowing even the first shot to be pretty accurate. After that, live coverage could allow you to fine tune your aim.... or you could use a web cam perched nearby with a cell phone to see just where your shots were landing so you could walk them in. Fire for a minute, then drive away before anyone knows what happened.
To picture that, here's Michigan stadium. It holds over 115,000 fans, packed tightly:
Here's what a 60 mm mortar looks like:
The whole thing weighs just 40 pounds, and each round weighs around 3 pounds, so a sturdy person could carry the weapon and two dozen rounds, without too much effort, and for a two-person team it would be easy.
That will fire between 76, and 3,816 yards effectively. If you set up 1000 yards away, well within range, to give yourself an easy shot, you could be way the hell out here, far beyond the radius of any enhanced security:
A 60-mm HE M49A4 will cover about a 33-foot blast radius lethally (other 60 mm rounds go from about half that to about twice that, so I'm taking the middle). Here's what that radius looks like superimposed on the stadium:
Roughly 1200 people would be inside that circle and would be dead, from a single hit -- with severe injuries all around it. That's 1200 dead with a single shot. Land just three shots in the stadium before it empties, and you've carried out the deadliest terrorist attack in history.... on live TV. The weapon is designed to fire 30 shots in one minute, so even throwing away the first few for ranging, it would be hard not to kill far more people than died on 9/11.
And that's with a fairly small and cheap mortar -- a plan you could pull off for $10,000 or so solo or with a two-man team. With a four-man team and about twice the funds, you could go with a 120 mm mortar, mounted to a pickup truck. The 120 mm HE shells have a lethality radius of 225 feet, so dropping one at midfield would kill about 40,000 people at a shot, and any shot landing anywhere in that stadium would kill at least 10,000. And after firing 15 shots in a minute, you could just drive away.
How do you defend against that? A 60 mm mortar has a range of up to 2.1 miles, and a 120 mm mortar has a range of up to 4.5 miles. You simply cannot police a range that far around every event. And there are hundreds of thousands of these mortars available all around the world for cheap. Even if you couldn't get your hands on one, something home-made would be easy. There are home-made devices that chuck pumpkins as far as 4700 feet -- chucking a bunch of home-made pipe bombs with one of those would be child's play.
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