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What if?

imreallyperplexed

imreallyperplexed

Council Member
This question is open to both lefties and righties and those without a particular political leaning.

1. If Mitt Romney is elected:

What do you expect to happen between November 7, 2012 and January 19, 2013?
What do you expect to happen between January 20, 2013 and July 20, 2013 (first six months of first term)?

2. If Barack Obama is elected:

What do you expect to happen between November 7, 2012 and January 19, 2013?
What do you expect to happen between January 20, 2013 and July 20, 2013 (first six months of second term)?

For example, you might say something about whether and how the Fiscal Cliff issue will be dealt with over the transition. You might also talk about what would happen with Obamacare during the first six months of a Bush or Romney Presidency. (You can also talk about the impact that the election of one or the other candidate would have on you personally or on any other thing that strikes your fancy.
 
If Romney is elected

I will cry openly with no shame for all of us and my grandchildren and whats to come.

I have no idea what the crazy loon will do between those dates. They have to get a budget passed or we are over the cliff. In the first six months each side will be working with some unhappy people if the one or the other wins.

It's not an easy thing to think about.

If/when Obama is elected, I will bring out the champagne and cheer that the American people really did have the foresight to read between the lies.

Until the Inaugration the cons may call for a recount and try anything that might change things. I would hope they would remain civil.

In the first six months depending on who makes up the house, the budget has to be passed. Really they do not have six months.
 
If Romney is elected, I may move out of the country. I mean it. This nation is led around the nose by greedy pieces of shit and their idiotic mob. It would be a totally different issue if Romney was not part of a party that had so many rabid tea baggers and right wing nuts in it. If it was more moderate, I could tolerate it. But todays GOP is a disaster. And if we think Romney is going to magically create 12 million jobs by cutting taxes and regulations, then the folks who buy that load of bullshit deserve the ass [Unwelcome language removed] they are going to get.
 
Thanks lilly.

For my part, if Romney wins, I would expect there might be negotiations between Romney, Obama and the Congressional leadership about the fiscal cliff. I don't think that it is likely that the Bush tax cuts issue would be resolved because Democrats won't vote to extend tax cuts for those earning over 250K or some other cut off point and Republicans will not let that happen. They might be able to cut a deal on sequestration. But I kind of doubt it. I'd also keep my eye on who Romney was nominating to his Cabinet.

Vis a vis, I would expect Romney to try eviscerate Obamacare and Dodd-Frank in the first two or three months. I am really curious what (if anything) he will do WRT to jobs. I think that his honeymoon will be very short because he has advertised himself as the miracle-working turnaround artist. The thing that I worry about most is that Iran or someone else would challenge him and he would embroil us in a big war in the Middle East. I would expect him to try to get some sort of tax reform deal as well.

If Obama is reelected, I would expect him to have a little more leverage vis a vis the Bush tax cuts and the sequestration issues. I expect some kind of efforts at tax reform - including perhaps some relooking at deductions and rates. That said, I do expect a balanced approach to raising revenue and cutting taxes such that economic growth - both short term and long term - and deficit reduction would be maximized. But I expect that he would continue to have trouble getting Republicans to work with him/compromise.

As to how to how I would feel, I would be disappointed if Romney was elected but I won't be crushed. I would expect Romney to make the first move before I drew any conclusions. If Obama is reelected, I will feel pleased and be ready to think about more important things than election campaigns.




lilly said:
If Romney is elected

I will cry openly with no shame for all of us and my grandchildren and whats to come.

I have no idea what the crazy loon will do between those dates. They have to get a budget passed or we are over the cliff. In the first six months each side will be working with some unhappy people if the one or the other wins.

It's not an easy thing to think about.

If/when Obama is elected, I will bring out the champagne and cheer that the American people really did have the foresight to read between the lies.

Until the Inaugration the cons may call for a recount and try anything that might change things. I would hope they would remain civil.

In the first six months depending on who makes up the house, the budget has to be passed. Really they do not have six months.
Click to expand...
 
Interesting answer Woolley. I don't have plans to move. But I would keep my eye on Mitt to see if he kowtowed to the tea party and the neo-cons. It would be an interesting first six months. But you and I are lucky. We could both leave and find a place outside the U.S. I suspect. It would be a lot harder for a lot of folks who would not have those options.

Woolleybugger said:
If Romney is elected, I may move out of the country. I mean it. This nation is led around the nose by greedy pieces of shit and their idiotic mob. It would be a totally different issue if Romney was not part of a party that had so many rabid tea baggers and right wing nuts in it. If it was more moderate, I could tolerate it. But todays GOP is a disaster. And if we think Romney is going to magically create 12 million jobs by cutting taxes and regulations, then the folks who buy that load of bullshit deserve the ass <img src=images/smilies/animated/censored.gif>ing they are going to get.
Click to expand...
 
imreallyperplexed said:
This question is open to both lefties and righties and those without a particular political leaning.

1. If Mitt Romney is elected:

What do you expect to happen between November 7, 2012 and January 19, 2013?
What do you expect to happen between January 20, 2013 and July 20, 2013 (first six months of first term)?
Click to expand...

I've said this before and I see nothing that changes this. If Romney is elected, then the GOP will have shown the Dems that there is no adverse price to pay politically for obstructionism. That the blame for it and its consequences will accrue to the POTUS.

So that gives the Dems in Congress every incentive to simply block all economic actions by Rommey. Doing so will cause across the board spending cuts aka 30% sequestration. Plus if they "cooperate" with the GOP and pass increases in DoD spending, the economy will collapse at about the rate of 12%/yr.

Now since "cutting spending" is the GOP Mantra, Romney will NOT be able to attack Congress for doing so, particularly if they increase DoD spending (which with its < 1.0 Fiscal Multiplier will REDUCE GDP growth even further). That means that Romney and Congress won't be able to BEGIN the political prep work for increases in spending until mid-summer when the recession is in full swing. By the time they pass some spending bills in 2013 and reverse the slide, it will be too late:
  • As Christine LeGare has wanred, the world Wide economy wil be in recession
  • GOP congressional seats will be in such danger that 2014 will become a landslide "Throw the Bums Out"
  • Romney will have guaranteed himself to be a 1 Term POTUS



2. If Barack Obama is elected:

What do you expect to happen between November 7, 2012 and January 19, 2013?
What do you expect to happen between January 20, 2013 and July 20, 2013 (first six months of second term)?
Click to expand...

During the Lame Duck Session, Obama will try to get the sequestration cuts reversed by railing against Congressional obstructionism. At this point, based on some recent reporting of Boehner's response to LeGare's warning at the IMF, there is about a 20% chance this will actually make it through Congress. But since Obama will be completely unwilling to give on upper income tax cuts, I think we WILL see the cuts go into place

Then Obama will continue to rail at the obstructionist GOP in the House and focus the blame for the double dip recession squarely on their shoulders. They won't of course respond. That is until they go home for the Easter Recess and face the wrath of their constituents. So new spending will pass in April and hopefully limit the recession to merely 3% of GDP (essentially putting us back to where we were in Dec 2009)



In both cases Congress changes hands in 2014 and the Dems win the WH in 2016


For example, you might say something about whether and how the Fiscal Cliff issue will be dealt with over the transition. You might also talk about what would happen with Obamacare during the first six months of a Bush or Romney Presidency. (You can also talk about the impact that the election of one or the other candidate would have on you personally or on any other thing that strikes your fancy.[/QUOTE]
 
In the slim, surrealistic chance that Rmoney is elected (or installed via the Republican SCOTUS), I'm with lilly...who know what that arrogant, narcissistic idiot would do. I do think that the state of the economy is precarious, and that he would probably drive us over the cliff, again, as Bush43 did. I believe that Obama will be re-elected, and hold some hope that we will gain in the Senate and hold it, and hope that we make some gains in the House.
 
degs,

I had you in the back of my mind when I asked the questions. Interesting answers.

I wonder if I should read anything into the fact that no rightie has decided to answer these "what if" questions.

(For example, I am wondering if NCM might predict that Romney would give George Zimmerman an executive pardon.)

degsme said:
I've said this before and I see nothing that changes this. If Romney is elected, then the GOP will have shown the Dems that there is no adverse price to pay politically for obstructionism. That the blame for it and its consequences will accrue to the POTUS.

So that gives the Dems in Congress every incentive to simply block all economic actions by Rommey. Doing so will cause across the board spending cuts aka 30% sequestration. Plus if they "cooperate" with the GOP and pass increases in DoD spending, the economy will collapse at about the rate of 12%/yr.

Now since "cutting spending" is the GOP Mantra, Romney will NOT be able to attack Congress for doing so, particularly if they increase DoD spending (which with its < 1.0 Fiscal Multiplier will REDUCE GDP growth even further). That means that Romney and Congress won't be able to BEGIN the political prep work for increases in spending until mid-summer when the recession is in full swing. By the time they pass some spending bills in 2013 and reverse the slide, it will be too late:
  • As Christine LeGare has wanred, the world Wide economy wil be in recession
  • GOP congressional seats will be in such danger that 2014 will become a landslide "Throw the Bums Out"
  • Romney will have guaranteed himself to be a 1 Term POTUS





During the Lame Duck Session, Obama will try to get the sequestration cuts reversed by railing against Congressional obstructionism. At this point, based on some recent reporting of Boehner's response to LeGare's warning at the IMF, there is about a 20% chance this will actually make it through Congress. But since Obama will be completely unwilling to give on upper income tax cuts, I think we WILL see the cuts go into place

Then Obama will continue to rail at the obstructionist GOP in the House and focus the blame for the double dip recession squarely on their shoulders. They won't of course respond. That is until they go home for the Easter Recess and face the wrath of their constituents. So new spending will pass in April and hopefully limit the recession to merely 3% of GDP (essentially putting us back to where we were in Dec 2009)



In both cases Congress changes hands in 2014 and the Dems win the WH in 2016


For example, you might say something about whether and how the Fiscal Cliff issue will be dealt with over the transition. You might also talk about what would happen with Obamacare during the first six months of a Bush or Romney Presidency. (You can also talk about the impact that the election of one or the other candidate would have on you personally or on any other thing that strikes your fancy.
Click to expand...
[/QUOTE]
 
Well I've asked this of conservatives before - to refute my logic. And the ONLY thing they say is "Romney will work across the aisle. After all he said he would"

They don't even TRY to address the issue of the consequences of the GOP's actions and their failure to pay a political price for them. Its rather disappointing. Even the best reasoned ones like Lukey have gone off the Deep End of the "Celebrate Any Hint Obama Might Lose"....

Look Christine LeGare is no dummy. She's warning about the writing on the wall.
 
I would like to leave if Rmoney somehow manages to steal the election, but I am one of those without "the options".
 
Things are going to be tough whoever is elected. Incumbent Presidents who are reelected don't get honeymoons. But I doubt that Romney would get a honeymoon as a new President. As degsme noted, I doubt that the Democrats would bend over backward to be accomodating (for a lot of reasons) and I don't think that Romney could act without some bi-partisan support. And I think that there would be a major tea-party contingent pushing Romney to be severely conservative and try to impose a radical rightie agenda with or without bipartisan support. I think Paul Ryan will be sadly surprised at how little he or the Romney Adminstration could accomplish. Ryan would become like his fellow Wisconsin Republican, Scott Walker.

Friday13 said:
In the slim, surrealistic chance that Rmoney is elected (or installed via the Republican SCOTUS), I'm with lilly...who know what that arrogant, narcissistic idiot would do. I do think that the state of the economy is precarious, and that he would probably drive us over the cliff, again, as Bush43 did. I believe that Obama will be re-elected, and hold some hope that we will gain in the Senate and hold it, and hope that we make some gains in the House.
Click to expand...
 
Curiously, Obama would have lots of options even if he lost. Assuming that the tea-party didn't demand that Obama be charged and tried on one charge or another (and I think that RMoney and the Republican establishment would balk at that), he would be in an interesting position. Obama has pledged that - win or lose - this is his last political campaign. I suspect that he would get a good book deal (and have a big market.)

Friday13 said:
I would like to leave if Rmoney somehow manages to steal the election, but I am one of those without "the options".
Click to expand...
 
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