Good Early Statistical analysis of the Polling

[degsme]

Good early analysis of the polling essentially a Meta Analysis of the polls out there including the conservatives Fave, Rassy

Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...ma-begins-with-tenuous-advantage/#postComment

Current aggregate forcast puts Obama with a 289.5 EC vote win 50.4% of the popular vote and a 61.6% overall chance of winning


Intrade has Obama at 53.3% but Romney only at 42%...http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743475

 

[Lukey]

Yeah, here's a chart to help you visualize what is going on here:

 

[degsme]

Yeah, here's a chart to help you visualize what is going on here:

View attachment 1492

Hmm notice once again the Y axis has been played with by Lukey's sources.. Instead of going from 0 to 62, it goes from 53 to 62... thus amplifying the drop. Lets look at it in full NON-CHERRYPICKED CONTEXT



Amazing how different it looks when the axis isn't skewed.

But here's the point. Obama won 2008 with 52% of the vote. Intrade CURRENTLY PREDICTS A HIGHER WIN MARGIN... whereas the Five38 polling regression analysis puts Obama's margin below that of his 2008 margin.

That means Intrade still is overvaluing the outcome -OR - given its track record... Predicting Obama to have a stronger outcome than the direct Polling currently shows.

 

[Dino]

Hmmm, I still see the drop.

 

[degsme]

Hmmm, I still see the drop.

No question. Obama was overvalued during the GOP Primary.

 

[Lukey]

No question. Obama was overvalued during the GOP Primary.

Obama has ALWAYS been "overvalued." Good to see the left starting to finally admit that.

 

[GordonGecko]

"Oddly", Lukey LOVES the InTrade chart today.....but still hasn't put DIME ONE on "Romney will win it" stock.

Weird, huh?

 

[GordonGecko]

Hmmm, I still see the drop.

NOW is the time to BUY "Romney", Dino....make a FORTUNE come November.

Er....it's not a "risk"....is it????

 

[Woolleybugger]

I think the deciding factors will be the debates. Side by side America will be able to see them both and decide. Do you want to change gears and go with a businessman with no global experience or expertise or stay with a man who has grown into the job and is now poised to lead us to a new era? Obama is masterful in a debate, no one can touch the man one on one. Romney can only appeal to those tribalists who hate what Obama represents. The independents are really nothing more than undecided voters who vote more on personalities than issues. They will see the two men in action and that will be the end of it. My bet is the total vote will be close but Obama wins heavily in electoral votes. Reason triumphs over passion.

 

[Lukey]

Hmm notice once again the Y axis has been played with by Lukey's sources.. Instead of going from 0 to 62, it goes from 53 to 62... thus amplifying the drop. Lets look at it in full NON-CHERRYPICKED CONTEXT

View attachment 1507

Amazing how different it looks when the axis isn't skewed.

But here's the point. Obama won 2008 with 52% of the vote. Intrade CURRENTLY PREDICTS A HIGHER WIN MARGIN... whereas the Five38 polling regression analysis puts Obama's margin below that of his 2008 margin.

That means Intrade still is overvaluing the outcome -OR - given its track record... Predicting Obama to have a stronger outcome than the direct Polling currently shows.

Was the Y axis mis-labeled? If not, your charge is lame. It shows EXACTLY what it says it shows. And, since Obama is going to win or lose based on a fairly small portion of the electorate that is currently "undecided" (and in the middle) one could (more accurately) make the case that it is YOUR "0 to 62" chart that is "distorted."

 

[GordonGecko]

IF the Right was as confident as they claim....

InTrade stock on "Romney to win" would be like someone with knowledge of the late 1990s being taken back in time and given the chance to buy Microsoft as an IPO.


Again...IF...they were as confident as they claim.

 

[Dino]

Less and less a risk everyday, the chances of him winning are getting slimmer, especially in the face of the lack of confidence in him handling the economy, and numbers that continually get worse.

 

[GordonGecko]

Less and less a risk everyday, the chances of him winning are getting slimmer, especially in the face of the lack of confidence in him handling the economy, and numbers that continually get worse.

Then why aren't you BUYING "Romney", Dino...over at InTrade....with every dime you have to spare????