Hey, just so we know who is the BSer around here...

[Lukey]

This is a poll which is actually good news for the President:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/09/cnn-poll-race-tightening-up-in-battleground-ohio/

It's actually not skewed as it only shows Dems plus 2 in the sample. Of course the President's lead is within the margin of error. And he could win Ohio and still lose if Romney picks off PA. But, nevertheless, it is an honest poll that shows the President ahead in a key state. Of course, I had to find it myself because our resident poll spinner missed it (too busy cooking up more apples to oranges comparisons I guess). Oh, well. Carry on!

 

[Days]

this map has proven to be highly reactive; it says Michigan is closer than PA... and it had Wisconsin in as a toss-up just a couple of days ago.

I'm not pretending to be an authority, Lukey, I'm sure you know more about it than me.

 

[Lukey]

this map has proven to be highly reactive; it says Michigan is closer than PA... and it had Wisconsin in as a toss-up just a couple of days ago.

I'm not pretending to be an authority, Lukey, I'm sure you know more about it than me.

I'm no authority on polling either but I do understand math. And it's pretty much accepted that the President is doing worse than 2008 with independents, married women and suburban whites. There's a case to be made that he's doing slightly worse with the youth vote as well. So unless the minority and single woman population has really grown in size (which it has but you can also make a case that the enthusiasm factor offsets that) the only way he can achieve victory is if Democrats turn out in even bigger numbers than they did in 2008. But party ID seems to have moved in the Republicans' favor the past four years so you can also make an argument that there will be a smaller surplus of Dem voters, not a bigger one. So I don't see how the President wins this election. With the vast majority of national polls showing Romney not only ahead but at or above 50%, he seems in pretty good shape to me. The big question mark is Ohio. Will it come in that far off the national number? In recent history (past 40 years) the Republican candidate has actually done better in Ohio than he did nationally. Is that about to reverse? Maybe. Maybe not. I think it is possible that the polls don't accurately reflect the vote in Ohio. I have no empirical proof of this but I suspect that Republican voters (business people, soccer moms, people who spend a lot of time at their church) may get under contacted in these polling efforts. I know libertarians are - I don't answer the phone unless I recognize the number and I suspect that's pretty typical of like minded folks. So we'll see.

 

[Days]

yeah, you've got to wonder if they are polling the same people over and over... like the Nielson ratings for tv. Who bothers to answer polls, these days? American culture is not what it used to be.

 

[gabriel]

yeah, you've got to wonder if they are polling the same people over and over... like the Nielson ratings for tv. Who bothers to answer polls, these days? American culture is not what it used to be.

thankfully

 

[ARMCX1]

Here's the RCP statewide polls for OH. There are 9 polls that make up the RCP aggregate OH poll numbers: Obama +1.9% (Obama 48.2%; Romney 46.3%). Of the 9 polls, 3 are ties and 6 give Obama a lead ranging from 1 to 5 points. What's more, Obama has never been behind in OH in the polling for the last year. The OH aggregate has been trending negative (loss of support) for Romney since 10-10-12 and positive for Obama since 10-21-12.

So, OH is a toss up but it is trending for Obama. If the election were held today, Obama would likely win OH.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html