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Inheritance Crisis

Arkady

President
This article makes the argument that there will be a major shift in inheritance patterns in a few years, as Baby Boomers die off an leave their fortunes:

http://www.salon.com/2014/04/02/gen...mericas_coming_inheritance_explosion_partner/

I suppose it makes sense that would be the case. The Baby Boomer generation was unusually large and, at least during the period when "Generation X" was born, produced relatively few heirs. That's a recipe for a much greater share of individual wealth being attributable to inheritance than in prior generations, when big fortunes would have been divided up among more heirs.

To head off the problems associated with excessive wealth inequality (and particularly with having much of the society's wealth in the hands of people who've shown no particular talent), we'd do well to reform inheritance laws now, while there's still time before the Boomers start kicking the bucket in large numbers.

My preferred reform is to exempt a relatively small portion of an estate (e.g., set at 120% of the value of a median home, so that a typical person could leave the family home and personal effects tax free), with everything beyond that taxed as regular income for the heirs. So, for example, if someone died with an estate valued at $1 million, leaving it to three children, something around $275,000 would be exempted, with each heir then having around $242,000 in extra "income" to account for. To avoid having it be too harsh a hit, I'd allow the income to be pro-rated over the next decade, so that, in the described scenario, it would only increase taxable income by $24,200 per heir per year.

However, even short of that kind of comprehensive reform, just rolling the rules back to something more like we had in earlier eras would help. For example, starting in 1942, and throughout our economic golden age (the 50s and 60s), we had a fairly low estate tax exemption and graduated rates that rose as high as 77%. The exemption in that time was $60,000. If we adjusted that for inflation, from the late 60s to today, that would be like a $400,000 exemption today (instead of the sky-high exemption of $5 million we currently have). A $400,000 exemption would allow a fairly nice home and personal effects, or even a genuinely small business, to be handed down without worrying about tax.

Over the years, a number of changes to the estate tax were implemented to benefit the very rich, aside from just a vastly higher exemption and lower rates. In 1980, for example they retroactively repealed the "carry-over basis" rules. In effect, the rule directly before the repeal was that if you inherited property, your "basis" was what the prior owner had paid for it. For example, if someone bought stocks for $100 and then left them to you when they were worth $1000, and then you sold them for $1600, your capital gain would be on $1500 -- the actual capital gain those stocks had experienced. After 1980, you got "stepped up basis," so that you got to pretend you'd acquired the property for whatever it was worth when you inherited it, even though you had not, in fact, paid a dime, so that, in the prior example, you'd only pay capital gains taxes on the $600 of the capital gain that happened to occur after you were handed the stocks, thereby sheltering the majority of the gain from ever being taxed. By simply repealing this rule and going back to carried-over basis, we could reduce the accumulation of wealth by the very rich, while also enhancing revenues in order to cut the deficit. We would also reduce a distortion in the market, since currently the wealthy have an incentive to hold onto assets until they die, even if it would be more economically efficient to sell them, simply because if those assets have unrealized capital gains, those need never be taxed if they're inherited before being liquidated.

So, for example, say you own some land out west that you no longer have any use for, and which others have great use for, and you could really use the cash from selling it to help grow a business you have back east. But say the estern property has millions of dollars of unrealized capital gains, so you'll take a tax hit on it if you sell. The current code encourages you to sit on it until you die, and then your heir can immediately liquidate it tax-free. Meanwhile, the land is being under-utilized and your business is unnecessarily cash-starved. Without stepped-up basis, this isn't an issue, since the taxes will have to be paid sooner or later, by you or your heir, so you may as well make the move whenever it makes sense from a purely business perspective, rather than gaming the tax system.

Another change was letting spouses inherit tax free. It used to be that 50% of jointly owned property was subject to taxation upon the death of a spouse -- the idea being you were being taxed on the half of the property you'd received from your spouse, just as you'd be taxed for property you inherited from anyone else. That was changed so that spouses could inherit unlimited amounts tax free. This allows for multi-generational passage of wealth without tax. For example, a wealth old man can marry a young woman and leaves her all his money tax-free. Decades later, when she's a rich society matron, she can marry a boy-toy and leave him that money tax-free, and so on.

All these changes together resulted in estate taxes bringing in a much smaller share of total federal revenue. Estate and gift taxes brought in 2.3% of total revenues in the mid-1960s, and as of 2009 (in 2010, there was no estate tax), that was down to 1.1%, a decrease of over half. And because of that, the rule changes have played some role in sky-rocketing wealth inequality in this country. Simply by rolling back some or all of these rules to something closer to what we had in the 1960s, we could minimize the social damage tax-free and low-tax inheritance of large estates has been causing.
 
This article makes the argument that there will be a major shift in inheritance patterns in a few years, as Baby Boomers die off an leave their fortunes:

http://www.salon.com/2014/04/02/gen...mericas_coming_inheritance_explosion_partner/

I suppose it makes sense that would be the case. The Baby Boomer generation was unusually large and, at least during the period when "Generation X" was born, produced relatively few heirs. That's a recipe for a much greater share of individual wealth being attributable to inheritance than in prior generations, when big fortunes would have been divided up among more heirs.

To head off the problems associated with excessive wealth inequality (and particularly with having much of the society's wealth in the hands of people who've shown no particular talent), we'd do well to reform inheritance laws now, while there's still time before the Boomers start kicking the bucket in large numbers.

My preferred reform is to exempt a relatively small portion of an estate (e.g., set at 120% of the value of a median home, so that a typical person could leave the family home and personal effects tax free), with everything beyond that taxed as regular income for the heirs. So, for example, if someone died with an estate valued at $1 million, leaving it to three children, something around $275,000 would be exempted, with each heir then having around $242,000 in extra "income" to account for. To avoid having it be too harsh a hit, I'd allow the income to be pro-rated over the next decade, so that, in the described scenario, it would only increase taxable income by $24,200 per heir per year.

However, even short of that kind of comprehensive reform, just rolling the rules back to something more like we had in earlier eras would help. For example, starting in 1942, and throughout our economic golden age (the 50s and 60s), we had a fairly low estate tax exemption and graduated rates that rose as high as 77%. The exemption in that time was $60,000. If we adjusted that for inflation, from the late 60s to today, that would be like a $400,000 exemption today (instead of the sky-high exemption of $5 million we currently have). A $400,000 exemption would allow a fairly nice home and personal effects, or even a genuinely small business, to be handed down without worrying about tax.

Over the years, a number of changes to the estate tax were implemented to benefit the very rich, aside from just a vastly higher exemption and lower rates. In 1980, for example they retroactively repealed the "carry-over basis" rules. In effect, the rule directly before the repeal was that if you inherited property, your "basis" was what the prior owner had paid for it. For example, if someone bought stocks for $100 and then left them to you when they were worth $1000, and then you sold them for $1600, your capital gain would be on $1500 -- the actual capital gain those stocks had experienced. After 1980, you got "stepped up basis," so that you got to pretend you'd acquired the property for whatever it was worth when you inherited it, even though you had not, in fact, paid a dime, so that, in the prior example, you'd only pay capital gains taxes on the $600 of the capital gain that happened to occur after you were handed the stocks, thereby sheltering the majority of the gain from ever being taxed. By simply repealing this rule and going back to carried-over basis, we could reduce the accumulation of wealth by the very rich, while also enhancing revenues in order to cut the deficit. We would also reduce a distortion in the market, since currently the wealthy have an incentive to hold onto assets until they die, even if it would be more economically efficient to sell them, simply because if those assets have unrealized capital gains, those need never be taxed if they're inherited before being liquidated.

So, for example, say you own some land out west that you no longer have any use for, and which others have great use for, and you could really use the cash from selling it to help grow a business you have back east. But say the estern property has millions of dollars of unrealized capital gains, so you'll take a tax hit on it if you sell. The current code encourages you to sit on it until you die, and then your heir can immediately liquidate it tax-free. Meanwhile, the land is being under-utilized and your business is unnecessarily cash-starved. Without stepped-up basis, this isn't an issue, since the taxes will have to be paid sooner or later, by you or your heir, so you may as well make the move whenever it makes sense from a purely business perspective, rather than gaming the tax system.

Another change was letting spouses inherit tax free. It used to be that 50% of jointly owned property was subject to taxation upon the death of a spouse -- the idea being you were being taxed on the half of the property you'd received from your spouse, just as you'd be taxed for property you inherited from anyone else. That was changed so that spouses could inherit unlimited amounts tax free. This allows for multi-generational passage of wealth without tax. For example, a wealth old man can marry a young woman and leaves her all his money tax-free. Decades later, when she's a rich society matron, she can marry a boy-toy and leave him that money tax-free, and so on.

All these changes together resulted in estate taxes bringing in a much smaller share of total federal revenue. Estate and gift taxes brought in 2.3% of total revenues in the mid-1960s, and as of 2009 (in 2010, there was no estate tax), that was down to 1.1%, a decrease of over half. And because of that, the rule changes have played some role in sky-rocketing wealth inequality in this country. Simply by rolling back some or all of these rules to something closer to what we had in the 1960s, we could minimize the social damage tax-free and low-tax inheritance of large estates has been causing.

Your idea is way too radical perhaps a tweaking of exempt levels and a progressive tax rate may be in order but I see no benefit of taking a such a large amount of an individuals accumulation depriving his or her family of the fruits of their labor. just to turn it over to an entity that is already 17 trillion in debt.
 
Your idea is way too radical perhaps a tweaking of exempt levels and a progressive tax rate may be in order but I see no benefit of taking a such a large amount of an individuals accumulation depriving his or her family of the fruits of their labor. just to turn it over to an entity that is already 17 trillion in debt.
Our revenues have to come from somewhere. At a given spending level, it's really just a question of when and from whom the taxes are collected. If we shelter from taxes those who don't earn their wealth, it just means higher taxes, now or in the future, for those who do. If the choice is between taking an extra $X from someone who does productive labor, or taking the same $X from someone who got his money because he won the "lucky sperm lottery," I'll go with the latter. If we can pick up an extra 1 or 2 percent of revenues by returning to higher effective estate taxation, and that's used to reduce by 1 or 2 percent the burden on those who actually work for a living, isn't that a good thing?
 
Our revenues have to come from somewhere. At a given spending level, it's really just a question of when and from whom the taxes are collected. If we shelter from taxes those who don't earn their wealth, it just means higher taxes, now or in the future, for those who do. If the choice is between taking an extra $X from someone who does productive labor, or taking the same $X from someone who got his money because he won the "lucky sperm lottery," I'll go with the latter. If we can pick up an extra 1 or 2 percent of revenues by returning to higher effective estate taxation, and that's used to reduce by 1 or 2 percent the burden on those who actually work for a living, isn't that a good thing?
here's the rub "At a given spending level" So it is true free shit buys votes.
 
My plan is to spend my last dollar on the day I die. That oughta obviate any estate issues.
I've been thinking about this, lately. I don't see value in leaving an estate of anything more than sentimental possessions. So, I'm happy with spending down nearly all my wealth before I die. The problem, though, is that you never know how long you'll live.

Spend at a rate designed to exhaust your next egg at age 85, and then you live to be 110, and you're looking at a quarter century of living in near-poverty (or actual poverty, depending on what kind of Social Security you have coming your way). But if you plan to live to 110 and die at 85, you'll be leaving a sizable estate.

Ideally, you could fix this with life annuities. But, to avoid the risk of the counter-party going belly-up, you'd need to diversify greatly, across multiple annuity providers, and you'd still be at risk of systematic problems of the sort we saw in the financial meltdown. If one company providing you an annuity goes belly-up because of the collapse of an asset class they were depending on to fund the annuities, then there's a good chance that all your annuity companies will be in trouble, since they will have made similar investments. And any insurers backing those assets could be in trouble, because they'd be facing multiple failures.

And then there's inflation to think about. You'd need CPI-adjusting annuities, or you'd be looking at a gradual decrease in your real income.

What would be nice is if the government offered something like that, so you'd only be financing very small overhead costs, rather than the large costs Wall Street demands to finance their huge executive compensation packages and lavish facilities and advertising. If government provided such a product, you'd also have the stability of Uncle Sam backing the promise, rather than Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, etc.

For example, say I want to buy an increase in my Social Security income of $20,000 per year, adjusted by inflation, starting at age 65. I could write Uncle Sam a check for, say, $370,000. If I die at age 66, Uncle Sam comes out way ahead. If I live to be 100, I come out way ahead. On average, it's break-even for Uncle Sam (the exact sums would need to be adjusted with more sophisticated actuarial tables -- I'm just guessing 1% return over inflation, and an equal likelihood of dying at each age from 65 through 100). There's no appreciable increased cost to them, since they're administering those SS checks, anyway -- they just adjust the amounts.

If Uncle Sam provided such a product, I could hand over that money and know that, between that amount and my baseline Social Security, I'll have a comfortable income for life, regardless of what inflation does and how long I live. There's no real way to approximate that with the private sector, because of the huge overhead costs and the risk.
 
Your idea is way too radical perhaps a tweaking of exempt levels and a progressive tax rate may be in order but I see no benefit of taking a such a large amount of an individuals accumulation depriving his or her family of the fruits of their labor. just to turn it over to an entity that is already 17 trillion in debt.

Exactly.

But, - you know.. its this kind of thinking that keeps the accounting profession humming along nicely. Ideologues come up with a rule, attorneys and accountants immediately figure out how to get around that rule. The people who get crunched in all this - its the upper middle class who don't have the bucks or connections with top level estate planners. - So just another way to stick it to the non-rich higher than average income earners though.

connie
 
your top post neatly illustrates why the left - and magazines like "salon" are not to be trusted with economic issues.

most estates over $5 milion don't involve some mcmansion going to the kids, but rather a family farm or small business after the founder dies.

confiscatory death taxes force the next generation to mortgage a farm or business to the max, and often result in business failures/bankruptcies.

if you hate small farms and main street stores, by all means ratchet up the death tax. they'll either be driven out of business, or bought up by agribusiness and the corporate america.

good work.
 
your top post neatly illustrates why the left - and magazines like "salon" are not to be trusted with economic issues.

most estates over $5 milion don't involve some mcmansion going to the kids, but rather a family farm or small business after the founder dies.

confiscatory death taxes force the next generation to mortgage a farm or business to the max, and often result in business failures/bankruptcies.

if you hate small farms and main street stores, by all means ratchet up the death tax. they'll either be driven out of business, or bought up by agribusiness and the corporate america.

good work.

We talk like a $1mil estate is actually anything like having real cash of $1mil.... its nothing at all like that. You have equity tied up in equipment - equipment or facilities you are using to work, etc. Its ridiculous.

Most of my clients are in construction. I hear all the time about all these rules we need to have for "big companies" like those doing a couple of million a year... I laugh.. I have clients doing a couple of million a year who use a hand check register still. The SBA finally got wise a few years ago and stopped requiring audited financial statements for companies doing 5 mil or more and moved it up to 10 mil - because they finally realized that a company doing 5mil a year... could be a pretty "small"business - with a pretty small bottom line..... but you know.. don't let that get in the way of some non-business person's assessment of what a business should be or how it should go - and ignore by the way that those businesses - as poorly or inefficiently run - provide jobs. And, that without that diversity - provided by all these small inefficient businesses 0 our economy would be just that much more fragile.. what happens when we all work for fortune 500 companies and those companies decide to downsize, huh?

connie
 
Exactly.

But, - you know.. its this kind of thinking that keeps the accounting profession humming along nicely. Ideologues come up with a rule, attorneys and accountants immediately figure out how to get around that rule. The people who get crunched in all this - its the upper middle class who don't have the bucks or connections with top level estate planners. - So just another way to stick it to the non-rich higher than average income earners though.

connie
Currently, the upper-middle-class doesn't get touched at all by estate taxes. Even if we dropped the exemption, as discussed, to $400,000, it wouldn't touch the upper-middle class, if you use a reasonable definition of what "upper middle class" means.

For example, say you divide people into the following equally-sized groups by their income quintile: Lower class, lower-middle class, middle class, upper-middle class, upper class. That would make the "upper-middle" class those whose household income puts them between the 60th and 80th percentile of all households. As of 2010, the median net worth of such a family was $128,600, and the mean was $293,900. In fact, even for those between the 80th and 90th percentile of income, the median net worth would be far below the $400,000 estate tax threshold I mentioned.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/PDF/scf12.pdf (table 4)

Even a lower-upper-class family is more likely than not going to have an estate that's much too small to be subject even to even a penny of estate taxes if there's a $400,000 exemption. Heck, even with an estate tax set just over the value of a median home, something like 85% of families are likely to be untouched by estate taxes. So, what we're really talking about here is a tax that would hit upper-class households exclusively, not upper-middle-class ones.

It is, of course, very valuable for the servants of the upper-class to create paranoia about such changes hitting Mr. and Mrs. Middle Class. But the numbers don't favor that interpretation.
 
your top post neatly illustrates why the left - and magazines like "salon" are not to be trusted with economic issues.

most estates over $5 milion don't involve some mcmansion going to the kids, but rather a family farm or small business after the founder dies.

confiscatory death taxes force the next generation to mortgage a farm or business to the max, and often result in business failures/bankruptcies.

if you hate small farms and main street stores, by all means ratchet up the death tax. they'll either be driven out of business, or bought up by agribusiness and the corporate america.

good work.
If you have evidence that most estates over $5 million involve a family farm or small business, present it. But lumping in businesses worth over $5 million with genuinely small businesses is definitionally deceptive, in my opinion. If you're a decent business person, you should be able to get a return of at least 13% on equity. If you can't, then you're stupid even to try to run the business: you'd be wiser to sell it and put the money in a diversified stock portfolio, since since 1950 stocks have returns 12.9% average, per year, without you having to do a lick of actual work for the money.

So, let's say you're a barely competent business person, getting just a 13% return, average, on the value of your business. And say your business is barely big enough to qualify for estate taxation. In that case, your business should be producing value equal to about $650,000 per year. That's enough income to put you in the top 1% of all earners. If you have to pay a bit of tax in exchange for the government transferring title to such a business from a dead person, to you, you should pay it gladly and thank your lucky stars you weren't one of the vast majority of us who only get $5 million businesses if we actually have the talent and perseverance to build them ourselves.

As for the idea of driving inefficient small farms and businesses into the hands of more efficient and talented management, I consider that a meaningful bonus! If a farm or business is being run so horribly that a person can't hold onto it if he has to pay a tax equal only to a small fraction of what a more talented person would be willing to buy that same business for, then we're all better off if the enterprise changes hands.
 
I've been thinking about this, lately. I don't see value in leaving an estate of anything more than sentimental possessions. So, I'm happy with spending down nearly all my wealth before I die. The problem, though, is that you never know how long you'll live.

Spend at a rate designed to exhaust your next egg at age 85, and then you live to be 110, and you're looking at a quarter century of living in near-poverty (or actual poverty, depending on what kind of Social Security you have coming your way). But if you plan to live to 110 and die at 85, you'll be leaving a sizable estate.

Ideally, you could fix this with life annuities. But, to avoid the risk of the counter-party going belly-up, you'd need to diversify greatly, across multiple annuity providers, and you'd still be at risk of systematic problems of the sort we saw in the financial meltdown. If one company providing you an annuity goes belly-up because of the collapse of an asset class they were depending on to fund the annuities, then there's a good chance that all your annuity companies will be in trouble, since they will have made similar investments. And any insurers backing those assets could be in trouble, because they'd be facing multiple failures.

And then there's inflation to think about. You'd need CPI-adjusting annuities, or you'd be looking at a gradual decrease in your real income.

What would be nice is if the government offered something like that, so you'd only be financing very small overhead costs, rather than the large costs Wall Street demands to finance their huge executive compensation packages and lavish facilities and advertising. If government provided such a product, you'd also have the stability of Uncle Sam backing the promise, rather than Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, etc.

For example, say I want to buy an increase in my Social Security income of $20,000 per year, adjusted by inflation, starting at age 65. I could write Uncle Sam a check for, say, $370,000. If I die at age 66, Uncle Sam comes out way ahead. If I live to be 100, I come out way ahead. On average, it's break-even for Uncle Sam (the exact sums would need to be adjusted with more sophisticated actuarial tables -- I'm just guessing 1% return over inflation, and an equal likelihood of dying at each age from 65 through 100). There's no appreciable increased cost to them, since they're administering those SS checks, anyway -- they just adjust the amounts.

If Uncle Sam provided such a product, I could hand over that money and know that, between that amount and my baseline Social Security, I'll have a comfortable income for life, regardless of what inflation does and how long I live. There's no real way to approximate that with the private sector, because of the huge overhead costs and the risk.

Coupla three things about that...

As I'm sure you know by now, a whole lot of otherwise responsible and always-well employed people enter their 40's and 50's rather shockingly unprepared for retirement. I think I read that the average 401k amounts to less than $80k. So....a lot of the advise and warning we read are focused a little more on those people than on the ones that have more socked away.

Then..."they say" that most people tend to overestimate what sort of income they'll need in retirement. They're thinking of all that free time they'll have and all the things they'll want to do. But as it turns out....most people end up spending less than they thought they would.

And finally, people worry a little too much about spreading their money out over their entire potential lifetime. But, we should be honest with ourselves about how much money we'll really need in those potential 85-95 years. It'd be the shits to cut ourselves short over the first 20 years of retirement, just so's we'll have a pot of dough we can't even spend, later on.
 
We talk like a $1mil estate is actually anything like having real cash of $1mil.... its nothing at all like that. You have equity tied up in equipment - equipment or facilities you are using to work, etc. Its ridiculous.

Most of my clients are in construction. I hear all the time about all these rules we need to have for "big companies" like those doing a couple of million a year... I laugh.. I have clients doing a couple of million a year who use a hand check register still. The SBA finally got wise a few years ago and stopped requiring audited financial statements for companies doing 5 mil or more and moved it up to 10 mil - because they finally realized that a company doing 5mil a year... could be a pretty "small"business - with a pretty small bottom line..... but you know.. don't let that get in the way of some non-business person's assessment of what a business should be or how it should go - and ignore by the way that those businesses - as poorly or inefficiently run - provide jobs. And, that without that diversity - provided by all these small inefficient businesses 0 our economy would be just that much more fragile.. what happens when we all work for fortune 500 companies and those companies decide to downsize, huh?

connie
I'd push the other way. A business worth $1 million is already large enough that it's a stretch to call it a "small business." I guess I'd favor the creation of a middle category for these kinds of businesses that are big enough to put their owners in the top 5% of earners, such that expecting a certain amount of business and financial sophistication isn't much to ask, but not so big that we want to hit them with all the rules that apply to, say, a Fortune 500 operation.

As for downsizing, I'd rather work for a Fortune 500 company than a small business if the economy takes a hit and there are layoffs. Big companies are subject to various labor protections that small companies aren't (e.g., WARN Act rules).
 
Currently, the upper-middle-class doesn't get touched at all by estate taxes. Even if we dropped the exemption, as discussed, to $400,000, it wouldn't touch the upper-middle class, if you use a reasonable definition of what "upper middle class" means.

For example, say you divide people into the following equally-sized groups by their income quintile: Lower class, lower-middle class, middle class, upper-middle class, upper class. That would make the "upper-middle" class those whose household income puts them between the 60th and 80th percentile of all households. As of 2010, the median net worth of such a family was $128,600, and the mean was $293,900. In fact, even for those between the 80th and 90th percentile of income, the median net worth would be far below the $400,000 estate tax threshold I mentioned.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/PDF/scf12.pdf (table 4)

Even a lower-upper-class family is more likely than not going to have an estate that's much too small to be subject even to even a penny of estate taxes if there's a $400,000 exemption. Heck, even with an estate tax set just over the value of a median home, something like 85% of families are likely to be untouched by estate taxes. So, what we're really talking about here is a tax that would hit upper-class households exclusively, not upper-middle-class ones.

It is, of course, very valuable for the servants of the upper-class to create paranoia about such changes hitting Mr. and Mrs. Middle Class. But the numbers don't favor that interpretation.

Arkady,

I work with upper middle class tax payers every day - and yes, they do get touched by our estate tax system. Middle class - is not the working class. It is not even the "middle" of households. Middle class - is and has always been small business owners ( and yes by small that could be businesses doing millions or tens of millions in volume) and professionals - like lawyers and accountants. You had upper class - wealthy investors/land owners - the middle class - vicars, stewards, professionals - most often sons and daugthers of lesser gentry who had to work in some capacity, the working class -the factory workers, the miners, the household staff, and then the poor - that didn't even work.

Now in our economy, in the good times, many working class people - can achieve middle class level incomes. And, of course, the more our working class has to spend, the more they spend with middle class people - i.e. in businesses or professional services.So, that has confused working class and middle class - but there is a difference. It is pretty easy to rise from working class to middle class- and the difference is basically - if you make your money with your brain instead of your braun. So, you can cite all your statistics of means of this or that, but that isn't what middle class is. That isn't what makes a person middle class - and it isn't necessarily the economic percentages. Its about who and what they do for a living that is the difference.

conie
 
Coupla three things about that...

As I'm sure you know by now, a whole lot of otherwise responsible and always-well employed people enter their 40's and 50's rather shockingly unprepared for retirement. I think I read that the average 401k amounts to less than $80k. So....a lot of the advise and warning we read are focused a little more on those people than on the ones that have more socked away.

Then..."they say" that most people tend to overestimate what sort of income they'll need in retirement. They're thinking of all that free time they'll have and all the things they'll want to do. But as it turns out....most people end up spending less than they thought they would.

And finally, people worry a little too much about spreading their money out over their entire potential lifetime. But, we should be honest with ourselves about how much money we'll really need in those potential 85-95 years. It'd be the shits to cut ourselves short over the first 20 years of retirement, just so's we'll have a pot of dough we can't even spend, later on.
Those are all good points, but I'm "conservative" in the classic sense of the word. I hate the idea of living in tight circumstances late in life, because I built in an assumption that I'd lose my appetite for travel in my 80s, for example. I'd rather err on the side of caution and have extra money available.

Currently, I'm planning to retire at age 57, which is going to take some doing. I'm willing to live off a small fraction of what I currently earn -- around $100k in today's dollars, which is just a third of my current income. But I hate the idea of letting that amount erode over time, and I hate the idea of running out before I'm dead. Those requirements make the math very difficult. I'll need a massive retirement portfolio to pull it off.
 
I'd push the other way. A business worth $1 million is already large enough that it's a stretch to call it a "small business." I guess I'd favor the creation of a middle category for these kinds of businesses that are big enough to put their owners in the top 5% of earners, such that expecting a certain amount of business and financial sophistication isn't much to ask, but not so big that we want to hit them with all the rules that apply to, say, a Fortune 500 operation.

As for downsizing, I'd rather work for a Fortune 500 company than a small business if the economy takes a hit and there are layoffs. Big companies are subject to various labor protections that small companies aren't (e.g., WARN Act rules).

Arkady,

Do you realize a business could do a million dollars in volume - EASY and employ three or four people - max? I have clients that do 10 million and only employ 12 or 15 people at any one time and half of them family. That is STILL a small business by any actual business persons standards. In fact, below a million or so is a micro-business. Those businesses -don't even practically register or count as a business in my opinion. They are the kind of clients that if they didn't have some serious potential, I would politely tell them to go to some bookkeeping or tax service to get their work done. They aren't even a real player.

My point about the downsizing is the overall impact of what one company wants to do. The idea that big companies controlling the economy as being a bad thing - goes back all the way to Teddy Roosevelt and trust busting. Like anything else - to minimize risk - diversify. The more businesses we have, the less the overall impact will be when one fails. Thus we should be encouraging small private business growth.

connie
 
I'd push the other way. A business worth $1 million is already large enough that it's a stretch to call it a "small business." I guess I'd favor the creation of a middle category for these kinds of businesses that are big enough to put their owners in the top 5% of earners, such that expecting a certain amount of business and financial sophistication isn't much to ask, but not so big that we want to hit them with all the rules that apply to, say, a Fortune 500 operation.

As for downsizing, I'd rather work for a Fortune 500 company than a small business if the economy takes a hit and there are layoffs. Big companies are subject to various labor protections that small companies aren't (e.g., WARN Act rules).


As additional consideration - here is what the SBA considers "small" by industry.

http://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/files/Size_Standards_Table.pdf
 
Arkady,

I work with upper middle class tax payers every day - and yes, they do get touched by our estate tax system. Middle class - is not the working class. It is not even the "middle" of households. Middle class - is and has always been small business owners ( and yes by small that could be businesses doing millions or tens of millions in volume) and professionals - like lawyers and accountants. You had upper class - wealthy investors/land owners - the middle class - vicars, stewards, professionals - most often sons and daugthers of lesser gentry who had to work in some capacity, the working class -the factory workers, the miners, the household staff, and then the poor - that didn't even work.

Now in our economy, in the good times, many working class people - can achieve middle class level incomes. And, of course, the more our working class has to spend, the more they spend with middle class people - i.e. in businesses or professional services.So, that has confused working class and middle class - but there is a difference. It is pretty easy to rise from working class to middle class- and the difference is basically - if you make your money with your brain instead of your braun. So, you can cite all your statistics of means of this or that, but that isn't what middle class is. That isn't what makes a person middle class - and it isn't necessarily the economic percentages. Its about who and what they do for a living that is the difference.

conie
We can play definitional games with "middle class," but then let's at least be specific. I gave my definition. What's yours? Who, exactly, would count as "upper class"?

Currently about 0.2% of estates are subjected to taxes. In 1997, when the exemption was $600,000, less than 1.66% of estates were subjected to taxation:

http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=archivePage&id=esttax.htm

So, in order to talk about the "middle class" paying estate taxes, even if we returned to inflation-adjusted 1997 levels, you'd need to consider the "middle class" to include those richer than 98.34% of all estates. For me, that's just a patently absurd use of the term "middle."

Try to think of the question in less politicized context. Would you call the 2 yard line "mid-field" in football? Would you call the salutatorian in a class of 100 students as being a "middling" student? In almost any other context, we immediately grasp that something in the top 2% of a range is in the "upper" part of the range, not the "middle." But when the servants of the wealthy see political stakes in the language, they're willing to play all manner of bizarre word games.

I see no policy value to linking class to profession. There are lawyers I know who make seven figures per year and live lifestyles that make old-money types jealous. There are lawyers I know who do public interest law and live poverty-level lifestyles after accounting for student loans. There are musicians who earn eight-figure paydays for an album, and others who sleep in doorways and hustle on the street to try to fill a hat with coins. There are "business owners" taking home $15,000 per year selling home-made flower arrangements, and business owners who increase their net worth by billions of dollars in a single year. There are billionaire "landlords" commanding vast property empires, and there are "landlords" who rent out the downstairs of their duplex because otherwise they won't have enough money to avoid foreclosure on their modest home.

Income and wealth are the relevant factors to consider, not merely a description of the kind of economic activity the person engages in.
 
We can play definitional games with "middle class," but then let's at least be specific. I gave my definition. What's yours? Who, exactly, would count as "upper class"?

Currently about 0.2% of estates are subjected to taxes. In 1997, when the exemption was $600,000, less than 1.66% of estates were subjected to taxation:

http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=archivePage&id=esttax.htm

So, in order to talk about the "middle class" paying estate taxes, even if we returned to inflation-adjusted 1997 levels, you'd need to consider the "middle class" to include those richer than 98.34% of all estates. For me, that's just a patently absurd use of the term "middle."

Try to think of the question in less politicized context. Would you call the 2 yard line "mid-field" in football? Would you call the salutatorian in a class of 100 students as being a "middling" student? In almost any other context, we immediately grasp that something in the top 2% of a range is in the "upper" part of the range, not the "middle." But when the servants of the wealthy see political stakes in the language, they're willing to play all manner of bizarre word games.

I see no policy value to linking class to profession. There are lawyers I know who make seven figures per year and live lifestyles that make old-money types jealous. There are lawyers I know who do public interest law and live poverty-level lifestyles after accounting for student loans. There are musicians who earn eight-figure paydays for an album, and others who sleep in doorways and hustle on the street to try to fill a hat with coins. There are "business owners" taking home $15,000 per year selling home-made flower arrangements, and business owners who increase their net worth by billions of dollars in a single year. There are billionaire "landlords" commanding vast property empires, and there are "landlords" who rent out the downstairs of their duplex because otherwise they won't have enough money to avoid foreclosure on their modest home.

Income and wealth are the relevant factors to consider, not merely a description of the kind of economic activity the person engages in.


I disagree completely. The relevant factor IS how they make their money, not the money they make. That is exactly how you determine "class". Middle class is middle management, owners of small businesses, scholars, professionals. Simply choosing to or not making the most of your economic opportuntiies - and thus earning less than your contemporaries, does not change your class. Controlling shareholders in publically traded companies, the CEO's, etc - and those who do not work at all for a living but are high income people - are the upper class - becasue they predominantly make their money off of other people's work -without being part of the actual work itself. The working class are your standard laborer's office workers, etc -anyone whose position lacks much authority or autonomy.

The side playing the word game are those who are seeking to raise income taxes on the middle class. You see - when you start saying to the people who are actually in the middle class - hey - YOU people have to start giving more money to the working class - it changes perspective. You keep talking about all these taxes on the "rich" and the professionals and small business owners don't know you are talking about them. So, that is where the dishonesty is. The term "middle class" has always been the class of people - between the gentry - and the serfs. It has never had anything to do with income.

connie
 
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