Yes it will:
By JAMES TARANTO
"Obama Spending Binge Never Happened," announces the headline of a column by MarketWatch.com's Rex Nutting, which the president's supporters have received gratefully and eagerly. The Hill reports Jay Carney, the White House press secretary, has favorably cited the column, which claims: "Almost everyone believes that Obama has presided over a massive increase in federal spending, an 'inferno' of spending that threatens our jobs, our businesses and our children's future. . . . But it didn't happen." (MarketWatch, like this website, is part of Dow Jones & Co.)
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The Nutting chart
.Nutting's contention that the Obama years have not seen "a massive increase in federal spending" is literally accurate, at least if one construes "massive" in relative terms. He produces a bar graph that shows during fiscal 2006-09, which roughly corresponds to George W. Bush's second term, spending grew at an average annual rate of 8.7%. During 2010-13, the rate of increase is projected at just 1.4%.
"The major spending decisions in the 2009 fiscal year were made by George W. Bush and the previous Congress," notes Nutting. The most obvious objection is addressed in his chart, which "reassigns" to Obama "about $140 billion in extra spending in the 2009 fiscal year from the stimulus bill, from the expansion of the children's health-care program and from other appropriations bills passed in the spring of 2009."
The less obvious but more pertinent objection is hinted at in this paraphrase of Obama's I-inherited-this-mess mantra: "Like a relief pitcher who comes into the game with the bases loaded, Obama came in with a budget in place that called for spending to increase by hundreds of billions of dollars in response to the worst economic and financial calamity in generations."
That would be the Troubled Asset Relief Program, enacted in October 2008. It accounted for much of the enormous spending increase (to $3.52 trillion from $2.98 trillion, or 17.9%) in fiscal 2009. Thereafter the rate of change was much smaller: Spending fell 1.8% in 2010, rose 4.3% in 2011, and is expected to rise 0.7% in 2012 and fall 1.3% in 2013.
But TARP was a one-off, a temporary response to an emergency. By itself, it would have caused a bump in spending--that is, a sharp increase in 2009, followed by a sharp decrease in 2010. As James Pethokoukis notes, "Obama chose not to reverse that elevated level of spending; thus he, along with congressional Democrats, [is] responsible for it." Obama spends as if the 2008 emergency were permanent.
Or, to put it another way, he's like a relief pitcher who comes into the game with the bases loaded and proceeds to give up run after run.