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Polls Say It's Suddenly a Close Race

Mr. Friscus

Governor
A real clear politics average of polls from NBC, FOX, CBS/NY Times, Rasmussen, Qinnipac, Reuters, etc.

Clinton: 41.4%
Trump: 40.3%
Johnson: 8.4%
Stein: 3.1%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

When Hillary was up 10% a month ago or so, so many Liberals had sounded as if its over. Hillary could still win, I simply warned them not to assume nothing will happen. And happen it did.

Trump appears to be rising in the polls, it'll be interesting to see if his numbers continue to rise.
 
A real clear politics average of polls from NBC, FOX, CBS/NY Times, Rasmussen, Qinnipac, Reuters, etc.

Clinton: 41.4%
Trump: 40.3%
Johnson: 8.4%
Stein: 3.1%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

When Hillary was up 10% a month ago or so, so many Liberals had sounded as if its over. Hillary could still win, I simply warned them not to assume nothing will happen. And happen it did.

Trump appears to be rising in the polls, it'll be interesting to see if his numbers continue to rise.


The most Ridiculous things I've read on PJ:
1. Johnny Cash's lyrics are as violent and misogynistic as Jay-Z's (@Arkady)
2. Michael Sam is as brave and historic as Jackie Robinson (@Arkady)
3. The New York Times is an "independent fact checker" (@Arkady)
4. Conservatives dying, such as Judge Scalia, are to be celebrated (@Arkady)
 
The most Ridiculous things I've read on PJ:
1. Johnny Cash's lyrics are as violent and misogynistic as Jay-Z's (@Arkady)
2. Michael Sam is as brave and historic as Jackie Robinson (@Arkady)
3. The New York Times is an "independent fact checker" (@Arkady)
4. Conservatives dying, such as Judge Scalia, are to be celebrated (@Arkady)
(1) I haven't heard all of Cash's and Jay-Z's lyrics, so I can take no view about which one is the more violent or misogynistic. But, I am aware that Cash was a multiple-time crook whose "outlaw" lyrics romanticized criminals, including one who shot a man just to watch him die. The racists, obviously, weren't as upset about someone like Cash getting presidential attention as they were about Jay-Z.
(2) I didn't say Sam was as brave or historic as Robinson. That's just something you made up. I did compare the two, but took no stance on whether the levels of courage were equivalent, much less whether they were equally historic.
(3) They are.
(4) No, I took no general view that dying conservatives should be celebrated. That's just something you made up. Obviously, the death of Judge Scalia was a good thing for this nation, but that's not the same as saying we should celebrate conservatives dying, generally.

Totally off the topic, but have you ever heard the song Cash plagiarized for his Folsom song? It's really shameless.
 
(1) I haven't heard all of Cash's and Jay-Z's lyrics, so I can take no view about which one is the more violent or misogynistic. But, I am aware that Cash was a multiple-time crook whose "outlaw" lyrics romanticized criminals, including one who shot a man just to watch him die. The racists, obviously, weren't as upset about someone like Cash getting presidential attention as they were about Jay-Z.
(2) I didn't say Sam was as brave or historic as Robinson. That's just something you made up. I did compare the two, but took no stance on whether the levels of courage were equivalent, much less whether they were equally historic.
(3) They are.
(4) No, I took no general view that dying conservatives should be celebrated. That's just something you made up. Obviously, the death of Judge Scalia was a good thing for this nation, but that's not the same as saying we should celebrate conservatives dying, generally.

Totally off the topic, but have you ever heard the song Cash plagiarized for his Folsom song? It's really shameless.

I am familiar with Johnny Cash...he was a bastard in his personal life....
His wife on the other hand is a much more interesting person. It was her family that basically fostered country Music originally as a gospel do-over.

This is probably the first and most famous of all country songs.

 
A real clear politics average of polls from NBC, FOX, CBS/NY Times, Rasmussen, Qinnipac, Reuters, etc.

Clinton: 41.4%
Trump: 40.3%
Johnson: 8.4%
Stein: 3.1%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

When Hillary was up 10% a month ago or so, so many Liberals had sounded as if its over. Hillary could still win, I simply warned them not to assume nothing will happen. And happen it did.

Trump appears to be rising in the polls, it'll be interesting to see if his numbers continue to rise.
Trump has closed the gap and is doing almost as well now as he was right before the DNC. However, I'm not sure four-person polls like that are terribly important. When was the last time a fourth candidate got 3.1% of the vote? Even a third candidate getting 8.4% is something we haven't seen since Perot in the 90s. I suspect that both Johnson and Stein will significantly under-perform those polls, especially in swing states, as people indulging in telling pollsters they're going third party, today, break one way or the other when it turns into a real vote.
 
I suspect that both Johnson and Stein will significantly under-perform those polls, especially in swing states, as people indulging in telling pollsters they're going third party, today, break one way or the other when it turns into a real vote.

Interesting.

I think Johnson and Stein will fade once the debates take place and they will be notably or not notably absent depending on your view.

I feel Clinton will win this election but it will be interesting to see what effect her "deplorable s'" comment will have if any. Knowing the "media" is referring to Trump supporters that way could cause any number of people to lie to pollsters about who they are actually voting for (something I believe that is already happening in the African American community, I think Trump gets at least 8%).

Also the recent terrorist attacks given his general rhetoric and tough guy shtick that stuff only helps Trump as the Administration refers to it as a battle of narratives etc.

Then once again that will go out the window as the first Debates take place. All Trump has to do is seem plausible.........not sure he can do that but that really is all he needs to do. If he holds his own during the debate or somehow wins one ( I would not bet on it) that would be a disaster for Clinton.
 
A real clear politics average of polls from NBC, FOX, CBS/NY Times, Rasmussen, Qinnipac, Reuters, etc.

Clinton: 41.4%
Trump: 40.3%
Johnson: 8.4%
Stein: 3.1%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

When Hillary was up 10% a month ago or so, so many Liberals had sounded as if its over. Hillary could still win, I simply warned them not to assume nothing will happen. And happen it did.

Trump appears to be rising in the polls, it'll be interesting to see if his numbers continue to rise.
Trump has a lot of silent voters who will actually vote.
And Hillary voters for a large part will stay home.

I believe Trump will easily win.
 
A real clear politics average of polls from NBC, FOX, CBS/NY Times, Rasmussen, Qinnipac, Reuters, etc.

Clinton: 41.4%
Trump: 40.3%
Johnson: 8.4%
Stein: 3.1%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

When Hillary was up 10% a month ago or so, so many Liberals had sounded as if its over. Hillary could still win, I simply warned them not to assume nothing will happen. And happen it did.

Trump appears to be rising in the polls, it'll be interesting to see if his numbers continue to rise.


This is turning out to be much closer than I thought. We'll see how it shakes out.

I remember in the last election cycle, I wasn't even watching our Governor race.. figuring that Hogan didn't have a snowball's chance.... Polling had him 20 points down going into election day. Then as I saw the ticker come across that he was the projected winner, I was stunned. The Heir Apparent to OMalley' got his arse kicked.... And, Hogan is still one of the most popular governors. He has worked with the democrat comptroller on many things. He is a totally middle of the road guy and the only people who don't like him are the rabid partisan leftists.

He doesn't have an agenda other than cutting Gov't spending and the cost of Gov't for the people. And, he has done so responsibly and effectively and in the places where Gov't was just simply being whores... He was honest about what he was not going to accomplish and mostly has said, I just want to stop the bleeding...

Too bad he isn't running for Pres.
 
Interesting.

I think Johnson and Stein will fade once the debates take place and they will be notably or not notably absent depending on your view.

I feel Clinton will win this election but it will be interesting to see what effect her "deplorable s'" comment will have if any. Knowing the "media" is referring to Trump supporters that way could cause any number of people to lie to pollsters about who they are actually voting for (something I believe that is already happening in the African American community, I think Trump gets at least 8%).

Also the recent terrorist attacks given his general rhetoric and tough guy shtick that stuff only helps Trump as the Administration refers to it as a battle of narratives etc.

Then once again that will go out the window as the first Debates take place. All Trump has to do is seem plausible.........not sure he can do that but that really is all he needs to do. If he holds his own during the debate or somehow wins one ( I would not bet on it) that would be a disaster for Clinton.
I've learned never to bet against the stupidity of the American people, so I won't make any confident predictions that Trump will lose. But if I had to put my money on it, I'd say it's more likely than not. The prediction markets give him a 28% chance of winning, which seems about right to me (if it didn't, I'd bet accordingly).
 
Trump has a lot of silent voters who will actually vote.
And Hillary voters for a large part will stay home.

I believe Trump will easily win.
You have a history of wishful "thinking". As a reminder, on the eve of the last presidential election, you predicted Romney would win by four points, taking Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and probably Wisconsin. You also said that there was a good chance he'd take Pennsylvania, and some chance he'd take Minnesota or Michigan. Your reasoning was that the Republicans were far more fired up than the Democrats. As a reminder, here in the real world Obama beat Romney by four points, and took every one of those states. It turned out the Democrats were more fired up, with 28.8% turnout versus 27.2% among Republicans.

In the same thread, Saladin predicted Romney wouldn't win any of those. Marvin Martian likes to whine about how I call Saladin one of the smarter posters here, but the fact is Saladin called it. Back when the conservatives here had talked themselves into believing the Karl Rove rhetoric about skewed polls and a silent groundswell of support for Romney, Saladin predicted just what the polls were predicting, and ended up being right.
 
I've learned never to bet against the stupidity of the American people, so I won't make any confident predictions that Trump will lose. But if I had to put my money on it, I'd say it's more likely than not. The prediction markets give him a 28% chance of winning, which seems about right to me (if it didn't, I'd bet accordingly).

Given your history, I'd imagine you'd never be able to come to the conclusion that Trump is more likely to win, even if all the factors heavily pointed to it. It'd suggest weakness for Hillary, and would go against what you're hoping for... I doubt you could get over your ego and devoutness to your agenda and cause.

However, that's just a thought that you didn't ask for, so keep on truckin'.
 
Given your history, I'd imagine you'd never be able to come to the conclusion that Trump is more likely to win, even if all the factors heavily pointed to it.

What history, specifically? If you check my posting history, you should see that I have a strong track record of being able to distinguish between what I think is likely to happen and what I'd like to see happen. For example, I posted repeatedly here in favor of Sanders over Clinton, but was always up-front about the likelihood that Clinton would beat him -- even talking fellow Sanders supporters down from their irrational euphoria. I've also rained on the parades of fellow liberals who thought a Democratic recapture of the House was likely. I'd like it if the Democrats won the House, but given the way gerrymandering will give it to the Republicans with anything short of a landslide win by the Democrats overall, I don't think that'll happen.
 
What history, specifically? If you check my posting history, you should see that I have a strong track record of being able to distinguish between what I think is likely to happen and what I'd like to see happen. For example, I posted repeatedly here in favor of Sanders over Clinton, but was always up-front about the likelihood that Clinton would beat him -- even talking fellow Sanders supporters down from their irrational euphoria.
The difference between Sanders and Clinton is miniscule compared to Clinton and any conservative.

So, no, you're not earning much objectivity there.
but given the way gerrymandering will give it to the Republicans with anything short of a landslide win by the Democrats overall, I don't think that'll happen.

Do you have a problem with gerrymandering? Because both sides use it profusely. Odd that you'd only point out the GOP here, well, not odd. I'd rather it not be abused, but, I don't necessarily have a law to oppose it, being that it's not absolutely defineable.
 
A real clear politics average of polls from NBC, FOX, CBS/NY Times, Rasmussen, Qinnipac, Reuters, etc.

Clinton: 41.4%
Trump: 40.3%
Johnson: 8.4%
Stein: 3.1%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

When Hillary was up 10% a month ago or so, so many Liberals had sounded as if its over. Hillary could still win, I simply warned them not to assume nothing will happen. And happen it did.

Trump appears to be rising in the polls, it'll be interesting to see if his numbers continue to rise.
He aint going to win. The only poll that counts is the poll taken on November 8th, 2016. And the Donald is going to lose in a landslide in that one.:D
 
The difference between Sanders and Clinton is miniscule compared to Clinton and any conservative.

Agreed. But the point here is that I have a track record of distinguishing between what I'd like to happen and what I think will happen. If you reject the Clinton/Sanders example, there's the question of Republicans retaining the House, which I think is likely to happen (based on polling data), even though I wish it wouldn't. There are lots of partisans here who can't distinguish that way (check back in the archive to all those crowing about a coming Romney landslide, even as all the data pointed either to a close match or an Obama victory).

Do you have a problem with gerrymandering?

Yes.

Because both sides use it profusely.

Perhaps. At the present time, though, it represents a huge advantage to the Republicans -- they got fewer total votes in the House a few years back, and yet came away with a pretty sizable majority, because Republican-led state houses have managed to draw district lines to pack minorities into a few city districts, surrendering a few heavily Democratic urban districts in exchange for a large number of Republican-tilting rural and suburban ones.

What we ought to do is pass a law that has districts drawn nationally, by algorithm, using data, without human intervention. You could program a computer to come up with the most compact districts possible that produce results equal to state total voting in the prior election (e.g., if 60% of a state is Republican, Republicans tend to win about 60% of seats). That would take it out of the hands of partisans, and give us a Congress that looks a fair amount like America.

Heck, you wouldn't even need a computer if you had a law making it so the districts have to be drawn such that the aggregate outcome, applying that districting, of the last election would reflect the vote total (e.g., if Republicans got 50% of House votes nationally, they'd have gotten 50% of total seats). Take away the ability to draw funny lines to win disproportionate seats, and it would become a non-partisan job for technocrats, involving rationally fitting the district shapes to the underlying population groups.

Odd that you'd only point out the GOP here, well, not odd.

Agreed, not at all odd given that they're presently the ones shamelessly abusing the practice for a huge advantage. If this were, say, 1920, when Democrats were the mostly southern white rural people using gerrymandering to disenfranchise minorities, then it would make sense to focus on the Democrats. But Republicans have taken over that role.
 
He aint going to win. The only poll that counts is the poll taken on November 8th, 2016. And the Donald is going to lose in a landslide in that one.:D
I hope you're right, but the polls don't support that, and the polls are the best data we have to work with (the truth is, they've been fairly accurate, historically).

At this point in 2012, the polls had Obama winning by six. He won by four. In 2008, at this point it was a dead heat, and Obama won by seven. In 2004, Bush was up by eight at this point, and he won by three. In 2000, at this point, Bush was up by two and it ended in a dead heat. In '96, Clinton was up by ten at this point, and he won by eight. In '92 he was up by 16 and won by 6. Right now the polling average has Clinton up by 2.1. Given recent history, she's likely to win, since everyone who was up at this point in the polls won, other than Bush in 2000, where it ended in a statistical tie. However, it's far from certain. The person who was up at this point tended to lose ground by the final tally. So, it would be a surprise if Clinton goes from polling two points up to winning by a landslide.

Depending on who you ask, Clinton's chances of winning are between about 58% chance and somewhere in the low 70s. But I don't think any polls-based forecasting is predicting a landslide, since even the best recent outliers in her favor only have her up by seven. And it's not like we can hope that Trump makes some sort of catastrophic gaffe -- catastrophic gaffes are a feature of his average week and have been for months, and they have little impact on his polling. Even at his lowest ebb, when he was picking a fight with Gold Star parents, it still wouldn't have been a landslide.
 
Remember one thing - no matter what the results, the fact that no African American is going to win the election "proves" we are (still) a "racist" country...
 
This is turning out to be much closer than I thought. We'll see how it shakes out.

I remember in the last election cycle, I wasn't even watching our Governor race.. figuring that Hogan didn't have a snowball's chance.... Polling had him 20 points down going into election day. Then as I saw the ticker come across that he was the projected winner, I was stunned. The Heir Apparent to OMalley' got his arse kicked.... And, Hogan is still one of the most popular governors. He has worked with the democrat comptroller on many things. He is a totally middle of the road guy and the only people who don't like him are the rabid partisan leftists.

He doesn't have an agenda other than cutting Gov't spending and the cost of Gov't for the people. And, he has done so responsibly and effectively and in the places where Gov't was just simply being whores... He was honest about what he was not going to accomplish and mostly has said, I just want to stop the bleeding...

Too bad he isn't running for Pres.

I think your state's situation explains part of Trump's popularity. Everyone knows the people running DC are incompetents. Most of Trump's business ventures have been pretty successful. While I wouldn't expect him to be revolutionary in any way, the thought of someone who's actually run successful businesses being in charge of government is intriguing. Really, what does Hillary have to offer? No one can name her accomplishments. Oh I saw a list a while back. I remember one of the items: first First Lady to be elected Senator. WOW. Now how does that "accomplishment" translate to her being any kind of good leader? I never got my answer when I asked that of the liberal who posted the list of "accomplishments".

There's no question it's the status quo versus someone outside the establishment.
 
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