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Debate polls

PhilFish

PhilFish

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Which poll(s) is the official poll of reference to enlighten interested parties as to the outcome of the debate last night?
 
PhilFish said:
Which poll(s) is the official poll of reference to enlighten interested parties as to the outcome of the debate last night?
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There are a ton of online polls, but those are meaningless, since they just show which candidate has more support among those with less of a life -- the kind of people who are willing to go in, click, clear their cookies, click again, etc. CNN/ORC did a real poll and it came out heavily for Clinton: 62% to 27%. It was a major-league ass-kicking. I saw another poll that tracked people throughout the debate, showing it dead even early on, then Clinton pulling away by a margin later.
 
PhilFish said:
so, currently there is no valid frame of reference. Correct?

i.e. partisan outlets are spinning their bullshit, yes?
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No. There's at least one:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/27/poll.pdf

That's a real poll by credible pollsters, not just Internet-click-bait masquerading as a poll.

For those looking for hope for Trump, it's in 2012. That's the only other time in modern history a presidential candidate got demolished this badly in a debate, judging by post-debate polling of those who saw it. But that time it was Obama getting manhandled by Romney, and Obama bounced back to win the next two plus to take the election pretty easily.
 
Arkady said:
There are a ton of online polls, but those are meaningless, since they just show which candidate has more support among those with less of a life -- the kind of people who are willing to go in, click, clear their cookies, click again, etc. CNN/ORC did a real poll and it came out heavily for Clinton: 62% to 27%. It was a major-league ass-kicking. I saw another poll that tracked people throughout the debate, showing it dead even early on, then Clinton pulling away by a margin later.
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Ok, I agree..online polls are meaningless. And the one you reference, though predominately democrat..is valid? yes.
 
PhilFish said:
so, currently there is no valid frame of reference. Correct?

i.e. partisan outlets are spinning their bullshit, yes?
Click to expand...

We all have our own personal point of reference, no? The polls are merely barrels of points of references...

For the raging conservative, Breitbart says:

Donald Trump 75.75% (204,420 votes)

Hillary Clinton 24.25% (65,436 votes)

Total Votes: 269,856

Bullshit, yes.
 
Arkady said:
There are a ton of online polls, but those are meaningless, since they just show which candidate has more support among those with less of a life -- the kind of people who are willing to go in, click, clear their cookies, click again, etc. CNN/ORC did a real poll and it came out heavily for Clinton: 62% to 27%. It was a major-league ass-kicking. I saw another poll that tracked people throughout the debate, showing it dead even early on, then Clinton pulling away by a margin later.
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PPP has a poll as well..still favoring Clinton, but not nearly as steep a margin. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PostDebatePoll_92616.pdf

real poll? where yes, perhaps the drubbing wasnt so bad.
 
I wouldn't put too much stock in any "debate" poll. It's all just noise. I'm more interested in how the election polls change over the next few days. That will tell you who "won" the debate.
 
PhilFish said:
Ok, I agree..online polls are meaningless. And the one you reference, though predominately democrat..is valid? yes.
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It's a real poll. I'm not sure how to interpret its validity relative to the weighting of the audience towards the Democrats (relative to the weighting of likely voters). Presumably, since more people are Democrats, poll audiences tend to be weighted that way most of the time, so it should at least be a useful comparison to prior years.
 
Lukey said:
I wouldn't put too much stock in any "debate" poll. It's all just noise. I'm more interested in how the election polls change over the next few days. That will tell you who "won" the debate.
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If the general public sees this debate as a draw that is a victory for Trump.
 
Craig said:
Again...online polls are meaningless, as you agreed.
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yes. just making sure.

online polls have no bearing.

thus far, Arkady presents a poll showing Clinton destroying Trump

I found on showing Clinton winning, but by not so broad a margin.
 
PhilFish said:
cnbc has trump by a factor of 2, off nearly a million votes. Bullshit, too?
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/26/vote-who-won-the-first-presidential-debate.html
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Yep. With online polls, you can set up bots. I remember how, for years, Ron Paul would absolutely dominate online polls during Republican primaries, even while he got infinitesimal support in real polls, and almost nobody turned up for him on election day. He just had a handful of hard-core zealots willing to sit around voting a hundred times by hand, or savvy enough to program a simple bot to do it for them, along with plenty willing to mail a link to the poll around to any friends they knew liked the guy. It's utterly meaningless.
 
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