Recession?

[Arkady]

As I've mentioned before, we're overdue for a recession. The economy has been growing for 81 months, making it the fourth-longest growth cycle in American history, and over twice as long as the average growth cycle. Periods of improvement are never permanent, so at some point it's inevitable the economy will shrink again. Before it's done, though, it's looking increasingly likely that this growth cycle will top the length of the Reagan/Bush cycle and move into third place (behind the Clinton and Kennedy/Johnson booms).

Fourth quarter GDP growth was adjusted upwards, and the Fed is now projecting first quarter at 2.6%, which is solid. That's a late-cycle forecast, which has had high predictive value in the past. The blue-chip consensus forecast is in the 1.5-3% range. Job creation is solid, as well, with the latest reading at 151,000. The six months prior to each of the last several recessions included periods of significant worsening of job creation -- either actual job destruction, or at least a few readings in the low five figures, and we've had nothing of the sort to signal any recession within the next six months. Assuming the Fed doesn't again react to imaginary inflation and push prices down even farther towards deflationary levels, the best bet is the economy will continue to grow for at least half a year to come.

 

[Rouge Rover]

As I've mentioned before, we're overdue for a recession. The economy has been growing for 81 months, making it the fourth-longest growth cycle in American history, and over twice as long as the average growth cycle. Periods of improvement are never permanent, so at some point it's inevitable the economy will shrink again. Before it's done, though, it's looking increasingly likely that this growth cycle will top the length of the Reagan/Bush cycle and move into third place (behind the Clinton and Kennedy/Johnson booms).

Fourth quarter GDP growth was adjusted upwards, and the Fed is now projecting first quarter at 2.6%, which is solid. That's a late-cycle forecast, which has had high predictive value in the past. The blue-chip consensus forecast is in the 1.5-3% range. Job creation is solid, as well, with the latest reading at 151,000. The six months prior to each of the last several recessions included periods of significant worsening of job creation -- either actual job destruction, or at least a few readings in the low five figures, and we've had nothing of the sort to signal any recession within the next six months. Assuming the Fed doesn't again react to imaginary inflation and push prices down even farther towards deflationary levels, the best bet is the economy will continue to grow for at least half a year to come.

I really don't like dropping the age card but if you think recent history is impressive than you're too young to be in this discussion.

 

[Cerulean Mutt]

As I've mentioned before, we're overdue for a recession. The economy has been growing for 81 months, making it the fourth-longest growth cycle in American history, and over twice as long as the average growth cycle. Periods of improvement are never permanent, so at some point it's inevitable the economy will shrink again. Before it's done, though, it's looking increasingly likely that this growth cycle will top the length of the Reagan/Bush cycle and move into third place (behind the Clinton and Kennedy/Johnson booms).

Fourth quarter GDP growth was adjusted upwards, and the Fed is now projecting first quarter at 2.6%, which is solid. That's a late-cycle forecast, which has had high predictive value in the past. The blue-chip consensus forecast is in the 1.5-3% range. Job creation is solid, as well, with the latest reading at 151,000. The six months prior to each of the last several recessions included periods of significant worsening of job creation -- either actual job destruction, or at least a few readings in the low five figures, and we've had nothing of the sort to signal any recession within the next six months. Assuming the Fed doesn't again react to imaginary inflation and push prices down even farther towards deflationary levels, the best bet is the economy will continue to grow for at least half a year to come.

A few states that rely heavily on oil production are already in recession. We may be loving the low gas prices, but it's got North Dakota singing the blues.

 

[RickWA]

As I've mentioned before, we're overdue for a recession. The economy has been growing for 81 months, making it the fourth-longest growth cycle in American history, and over twice as long as the average growth cycle. Periods of improvement are never permanent, so at some point it's inevitable the economy will shrink again. Before it's done, though, it's looking increasingly likely that this growth cycle will top the length of the Reagan/Bush cycle and move into third place (behind the Clinton and Kennedy/Johnson booms).

Fourth quarter GDP growth was adjusted upwards, and the Fed is now projecting first quarter at 2.6%, which is solid. That's a late-cycle forecast, which has had high predictive value in the past. The blue-chip consensus forecast is in the 1.5-3% range. Job creation is solid, as well, with the latest reading at 151,000. The six months prior to each of the last several recessions included periods of significant worsening of job creation -- either actual job destruction, or at least a few readings in the low five figures, and we've had nothing of the sort to signal any recession within the next six months. Assuming the Fed doesn't again react to imaginary inflation and push prices down even farther towards deflationary levels, the best bet is the economy will continue to grow for at least half a year to come.

As transparent an attempt at Obaminnoculation as we've seen displayed on this board in some time.

Invest textwall on preemptive touting of cherry picked "good news" to soften the blow?

Check.

Attempt to distract with lengthy citation of VERY selective economic metrics while excising any and all negative items?

Check.

Buzz the Fed tower with imaginary blame-gaming, lamenting it for not holding to ZIRP for a decade...and then attributing that to "imaginary inflation-fighting" as if artificially low interest rates are some sort of birth right or norm rather than centrally-planned anti-capitalist crapola?

Check.

Overall attempt to anesthetize any and all who happen along and read this incredibly servile fit of Obama Administration PR?

Checkaroo!


My goodness how lefty projects his own incredibly limited capacity onto his audience when he parcels out such bilge!

The recession is on its way - and Arkady wants the sitting president absolved. Whadda shock.

 

[connieb]

As transparent an attempt at Obaminnoculation as we've seen displayed on this board in some time.

Invest textwall on preemptive touting of cherry picked "good news" to soften the blow?

Check.

Attempt to distract with lengthy citation of VERY selective economic metrics while excising any and all negative items?

Check.

Buzz the Fed tower with imaginary blame-gaming, lamenting it for not holding to ZIRP for a decade...and then attributing that to "imaginary inflation-fighting" as if artificially low interest rates are some sort of birth right or norm rather than centrally-planned anti-capitalist crapola?

Check.

Overall attempt to anesthetize any and all who happen along and read this incredibly servile fit of Obama Administration PR?

Checkaroo!


My goodness how lefty projects his own incredibly limited capacity onto his audience when he parcels out such bilge!

The recession is on its way - and Arkady wants the sitting president absolved. Whadda shock.

The worst of it should be hitting late summer and the fall and lead right into the next inaguaration... so.. I am sure we can look forward to hearing how the next President has had to deal with the crashing Obama economy.. you know for at least the next 4 if not 7 years... right?

connie

 

[RickWA]

The worst of it should be hitting late summer and the fall and lead right into the next inaguaration... so.. I am sure we can look forward to hearing how the next President has had to deal with the crashing Obama economy.. you know for at least the next 4 if not 7 years... right?

connie

Yeah...right. :-/

 

[Arkady]

I really don't like dropping the age card but if you think recent history is impressive than you're too young to be in this discussion.

In some ways it's impressive, such as the fourth-longest growth cycle in American history, or the very longest (by a huge margin) run of consecutive months of positive job creation. Those are just statistical truth, regardless of your age. But, I'll grant in other ways it's not so impressive. For example, the current 4.9% unemployment, while better than we ever got in the Reagan years, has a LONG way to go to get down to levels seen during the presidencies of Democratic luminaries like Clinton, Johnson, Truman, and FDR.

 

[Arkady]

A few states that rely heavily on oil production are already in recession. We may be loving the low gas prices, but it's got North Dakota singing the blues.

Yes. However, my guess is that in just about any economy, there are going to be a few states or regions that are doing poorly, since the very things that help some (like low energy costs) will hurt others.

 

[Arkady]

As transparent an attempt at Obaminnoculation as we've seen displayed on this board in some time.

Invest textwall on preemptive touting of cherry picked "good news" to soften the blow?

Check.

Attempt to distract with lengthy citation of VERY selective economic metrics while excising any and all negative items?

Check.

Buzz the Fed tower with imaginary blame-gaming, lamenting it for not holding to ZIRP for a decade...and then attributing that to "imaginary inflation-fighting" as if artificially low interest rates are some sort of birth right or norm rather than centrally-planned anti-capitalist crapola?

Check.

Overall attempt to anesthetize any and all who happen along and read this incredibly servile fit of Obama Administration PR?

Checkaroo!


My goodness how lefty projects his own incredibly limited capacity onto his audience when he parcels out such bilge!

The recession is on its way - and Arkady wants the sitting president absolved. Whadda shock.

The thread's first mention of Obama was from you. I understand that as a dutiful servant of Republican interests, you're pissed off as hell that Obama's policies didn't lead to the economic disasters your masters predicted. But that's not my fault. I'm just reporting the facts. Keep you fingers crossed: sooner or later the next recession will inevitably show up, and I'm sure you'll be instructed on how to blame that on Obama.

 

[Arkady]

The worst of it should be hitting late summer and the fall and lead right into the next inaguaration... so.. I am sure we can look forward to hearing how the next President has had to deal with the crashing Obama economy.. you know for at least the next 4 if not 7 years... right?

connie

Here's a fun trivia question for you: how many recessions have started under Democratic presidencies since the end of WWII? How about under Republican presidencies?

Answer:
Democrats 2 (one Carter, one Truman)
Republicans 9 (three Ike, one Nixon, one Ford, one Reagan, one Bush, two Bush)

Kind of interesting that all the presidential eras that didn't see the start of a recession were Democrats, while every single Republican had at least one, don't you think? It'll be interesting to see if we make it out of Obama's presidency without a recession starting, the same way we did with Kennedy, Johnson, and Clinton.

 

[georgephillip]

Assuming the Fed doesn't again react to imaginary inflation and push prices down even farther towards deflationary levels, the best bet is the economy will continue to grow for at least half a year to come.

What are the odds prospective voters will be looking at an economy next September similar to the one they saw in 2008?

 

[connieb]

Here's a fun trivia question for you: how many recessions have started under Democratic presidencies since the end of WWII? How about under Republican presidencies?

Answer:
Democrats 2 (one Carter, one Truman)
Republicans 9 (three Ike, one Nixon, one Ford, one Reagan, one Bush, two Bush)

Kind of interesting that all the presidential eras that didn't see the start of a recession were Democrats, while every single Republican had at least one, don't you think? It'll be interesting to see if we make it out of Obama's presidency without a recession starting, the same way we did with Kennedy, Johnson, and Clinton.

By your own admisssion they just come around.. the economy is "due" for one, so what is to say that that is nothing more than a coincidence and the market needed a correction?

 

[Dawg]

As I've mentioned before, we're overdue for a recession. The economy has been growing for 81 months, making it the fourth-longest growth cycle in American history, and over twice as long as the average growth cycle. Periods of improvement are never permanent, so at some point it's inevitable the economy will shrink again. Before it's done, though, it's looking increasingly likely that this growth cycle will top the length of the Reagan/Bush cycle and move into third place (behind the Clinton and Kennedy/Johnson booms).

Fourth quarter GDP growth was adjusted upwards, and the Fed is now projecting first quarter at 2.6%, which is solid. That's a late-cycle forecast, which has had high predictive value in the past. The blue-chip consensus forecast is in the 1.5-3% range. Job creation is solid, as well, with the latest reading at 151,000. The six months prior to each of the last several recessions included periods of significant worsening of job creation -- either actual job destruction, or at least a few readings in the low five figures, and we've had nothing of the sort to signal any recession within the next six months. Assuming the Fed doesn't again react to imaginary inflation and push prices down even farther towards deflationary levels, the best bet is the economy will continue to grow for at least half a year to come.

LMAO...........as you've ben saying, now that is funny as hell, especially since we're already in a recession as I've posted and others here in PJ.

My gawd it must suck to need to show how smart you are when readers can see what a fake you are.

You cheat like Hillary:

http://justicegazette.org/hillarys-unregistered-voters-gave-her-unlawful-nevada-win.html

 

[Dawg]

A few states that rely heavily on oil production are already in recession. We may be loving the low gas prices, but it's got North Dakota singing the blues.

that's why it's so funny watching the so-called lawyer predict a Recession that is already present.

 

[Dawg]

You days late with your great prediction son, top posted of Θ 2016 Recession pastTuesday @ 9:31am

who's slow now ☻

http://www.redflagnews.com/headline...ry-deep-economic-downturn-has-already-arrived

 

[Lukey]

Yes. However, my guess is that in just about any economy, there are going to be a few states or regions that are doing poorly, since the very things that help some (like low energy costs) will hurt others.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016...rates-still-linger-above-prerecession-levels/

 

[Lukey]

As I've mentioned before, we're overdue for a recession. The economy has been growing for 81 months, making it the fourth-longest growth cycle in American history, and over twice as long as the average growth cycle. Periods of improvement are never permanent, so at some point it's inevitable the economy will shrink again. Before it's done, though, it's looking increasingly likely that this growth cycle will top the length of the Reagan/Bush cycle and move into third place (behind the Clinton and Kennedy/Johnson booms).

Fourth quarter GDP growth was adjusted upwards, and the Fed is now projecting first quarter at 2.6%, which is solid. That's a late-cycle forecast, which has had high predictive value in the past. The blue-chip consensus forecast is in the 1.5-3% range. Job creation is solid, as well, with the latest reading at 151,000. The six months prior to each of the last several recessions included periods of significant worsening of job creation -- either actual job destruction, or at least a few readings in the low five figures, and we've had nothing of the sort to signal any recession within the next six months. Assuming the Fed doesn't again react to imaginary inflation and push prices down even farther towards deflationary levels, the best bet is the economy will continue to grow for at least half a year to come.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-growth-in-fourth-quarter-raised-to-1-from-07-2016-02-26

 

[Lukey]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...on-kansas-city-fed-survey-crashes-7-year-lows

 

[marvin martian]

As transparent an attempt at Obaminnoculation as we've seen displayed on this board in some time.

Invest textwall on preemptive touting of cherry picked "good news" to soften the blow?

Check.

Attempt to distract with lengthy citation of VERY selective economic metrics while excising any and all negative items?

Check.

Buzz the Fed tower with imaginary blame-gaming, lamenting it for not holding to ZIRP for a decade...and then attributing that to "imaginary inflation-fighting" as if artificially low interest rates are some sort of birth right or norm rather than centrally-planned anti-capitalist crapola?

Check.

Overall attempt to anesthetize any and all who happen along and read this incredibly servile fit of Obama Administration PR?

Checkaroo!


My goodness how lefty projects his own incredibly limited capacity onto his audience when he parcels out such bilge!

The recession is on its way - and Arkady wants the sitting president absolved. Whadda shock.

Arkady has already stated he is preemptively absolving Obama from any economic consequences of his administration.

 

[Bugsy McGurk]

Arkady has already stated he is preemptively absolving Obama from any economic consequences of his administration.

And you give Obama credit for the record breaking streak of 81 consecutive months of economic growth coming out of the epic GWB near-depression, no?

;-)